At the end of the war, will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territory they didn’t control at the start?
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Nov 11, 3:28pm: Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territory at the end of the war? → At the end of the war, will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territory they didn’t control at the start?

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How and when will this resolve? I think you need a deadline, because the war was never formally declared, and may never lead to a peace treaty. For example, if we get the same kind of situation as for Taiwan (claimed by both the PRC and the ROC, without any peace treaty), when do you resolve the question?

Or does "the end of the war" include a formal ceasefire without a peace treaty? Or some kind of de facto thing, as in "when both sides (mostly) stop fighting, even in the absence of any formal agreement"? It's an interesting question, but I think the end conditions need to be clarified.

Can you clarify whether you consider Crimea (and Donetsk) 'formerly Ukrainian' for the puproses of this market? I assume yes, but given that Russia controlled them before the outbreak of the curent war it's worth checking.

@AngolaMaldives I had intended to indicate territory Russia did not control in the status quo ante bellum. Do you have a suggestion of a better way to phrase the question?

@njmkw i'd just add "(that they didn't control at the start)" to the end of the question

predicts YES

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