Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026? | Manifold

Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?

74

590Ṁ9575

2026

5%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

To be clear, I mean at least partial control, so full control is included.

Ukraine-Russia war

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How is 'partial control' defined?

@42irrationalist Controlling some territory, but not all of it.

@BenjaminIkuta "Control" needs significantly more definition before I would place a bet on this market.

@FlawlessTrain What did you have in mind?

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