
By the end of the Ukraine war Crimea will be a part of Ukraine again?
45
closes Dec 31
42%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
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Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ23 +136.0%
New probability
43% +0.8%

Get Ṁ500 play money
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Connor Williamspredicts NO
I put it around 10-15%. 20-25% for Donetsk, 30-35% for Mariupol, 35-40% for Melitopol.


Camel Wranglerbought Ṁ100 of NO
the 'end' could be a very long time; maybe a decade if this conflict devolves into an insurgency. Anyhow, a similar question has been asked and the result is about 11% https://manifold.markets/Heaffey/will-ukraine-have-control-over-crim?r=Q2hyaXN0b3BoZXJTY2hyYWRlcg.
The guy writing the article you linked @tobid actually mentions his position is contrarian and more framed as 'advice'. It also seems somewhat political in nature, trying to justify further support from the west for the war.
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