By the end of the Ukraine war Crimea will be a part of Ukraine again?
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Irigi avatar
Irigibought Ṁ100 of NO

@tobid How big part of Crimea? Over 50%?

connorwilliams97 avatar
Connor Williamspredicts NO

I put it around 10-15%. 20-25% for Donetsk, 30-35% for Mariupol, 35-40% for Melitopol.

connorwilliams97 avatar
Connor Williamsbought Ṁ35 of NO

This is laughably overvalued.

1 reply
ForrestTaylor avatar
Forrest Taylorpredicts NO

@ConnorWilliams You're probably right. Why not buy more NO?

camelwrangler avatar
Camel Wranglerbought Ṁ100 of NO

the 'end' could be a very long time; maybe a decade if this conflict devolves into an insurgency. Anyhow, a similar question has been asked and the result is about 11%

The guy writing the article you linked @tobid actually mentions his position is contrarian and more framed as 'advice'. It also seems somewhat political in nature, trying to justify further support from the west for the war.