By the end of the Ukraine war Crimea will be a part of Ukraine again?

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How will the war in Ukraine end?

By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?

2% chance

At the end of the war, will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territory they didn’t control at the start?

94% chance

Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2025?

5% chance

At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?

11% chance

Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?

56% chance

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

72% chance

Will Ukraine still hold Zaporizhzhia city after the war between Ukraine and Russia ends?

78% chance

Will Putin remain in power if Crimea returns to Ukraine?

26% chance

When will the Ukraine war end?

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extended

@tobid Should this close now?

Might need to change the end date

predictedNO

was this supposed to close?

@tobid How big part of Crimea? Over 50%?

@Irigi Perhaps just the Swallow's Nest castle on the picture?

predictedNO

I put it around 10-15%. 20-25% for Donetsk, 30-35% for Mariupol, 35-40% for Melitopol.

This is laughably overvalued.

predictedNO

@ConnorWilliams You're probably right. Why not buy more NO?

the 'end' could be a very long time; maybe a decade if this conflict devolves into an insurgency. Anyhow, a similar question has been asked and the result is about 11% https://manifold.markets/Heaffey/will-ukraine-have-control-over-crim?r=Q2hyaXN0b3BoZXJTY2hyYWRlcg.

The guy writing the article you linked @tobid actually mentions his position is contrarian and more framed as 'advice'. It also seems somewhat political in nature, trying to justify further support from the west for the war.