By the end of the Ukraine war Crimea will be a part of Ukraine again? | Manifold

By the end of the Ukraine war Crimea will be a part of Ukraine again?

45

closes Dec 31

42%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Irigibought Ṁ100 of NO

@tobid How big part of Crimea? Over 50%?

Connor Williamspredicts NO

I put it around 10-15%. 20-25% for Donetsk, 30-35% for Mariupol, 35-40% for Melitopol.

Connor Williamsbought Ṁ35 of NO

This is laughably overvalued.

1 reply

Forrest Taylorpredicts NO

@ConnorWilliams You're probably right. Why not buy more NO?

Camel Wranglerbought Ṁ100 of NO

the 'end' could be a very long time; maybe a decade if this conflict devolves into an insurgency. Anyhow, a similar question has been asked and the result is about 11% https://manifold.markets/Heaffey/will-ukraine-have-control-over-crim?r=Q2hyaXN0b3BoZXJTY2hyYWRlcg.

The guy writing the article you linked @tobid actually mentions his position is contrarian and more framed as 'advice'. It also seems somewhat political in nature, trying to justify further support from the west for the war.

tobi d.bought Ṁ30 of YES

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/28/total-russian-collapse-surprisingly-close/

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ100 NO at 42% (cancelled) 🤖

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