By the end of the Ukraine war Crimea will be a part of Ukraine again?
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Dec 31
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Might need to change the end date

predicts NO

was this supposed to close?

@tobid How big part of Crimea? Over 50%?

@Irigi Perhaps just the Swallow's Nest castle on the picture?

predicts NO

I put it around 10-15%. 20-25% for Donetsk, 30-35% for Mariupol, 35-40% for Melitopol.

This is laughably overvalued.

predicts NO

@ConnorWilliams You're probably right. Why not buy more NO?

the 'end' could be a very long time; maybe a decade if this conflict devolves into an insurgency. Anyhow, a similar question has been asked and the result is about 11% https://manifold.markets/Heaffey/will-ukraine-have-control-over-crim?r=Q2hyaXN0b3BoZXJTY2hyYWRlcg.

The guy writing the article you linked @tobid actually mentions his position is contrarian and more framed as 'advice'. It also seems somewhat political in nature, trying to justify further support from the west for the war.