Background

Under the 28-point peace plan devised by the United States in November 2025:

• Russia would have withdrawn from Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast;

• Ukraine would have withdrawn from Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast; and

• control of Kherson Oblast and Zaporozhye Oblast would have been 'frozen' along the line of contact.

At the end of November 2025, Russia controlled approximately 20,522 square kilometres of Kherson Oblast and approximately 20,336 square kilometres of Zaporozhye Oblast.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if the amount of territory Ukraine controls following the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is greater than the amount of territory Ukraine would have controlled if the 28-point peace plan had been implemented on 30 November 2025.

This market will otherwise resolve NO.

Clarifications

This market concerns de facto territorial control.

For the purpose of this market, it will be assumed that Russia would have retained control of the entirety of the Kinburn Peninsula under the 28-point plan.

For the purpose of this market, the following events would mark the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict:

• the implementation of a peace treaty (as opposed to a ceasefire or armistice);

• the surrender of either side;

• the total defeat or collapse of either side, such that it no longer has state capacity; or

• a ten-year cessation of hostilities.

The close date may be extended as necessary.

For related markets, see my Russia-Ukraine dashboard.