Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?

1kṀ5214

2027

56%

chance

ALL

Suggested resolution critera.

This market resolves "Yes" if, according to the Institute for Study War, Ukraine is in control of any territory in Crimea.

This market resolves "No" if, according to the Institute for Study War, Ukraine has control of 80% of either Luhansk or Donetsk Oblasts.

This market resolves "Ambiguous" if neither happens or if there is a nuclear strike prior to either happening.

Oct 8, 3:22pm: ~~Will Ukraine invade Crimea before it takes back Luhansk or Donetsk?~~ → Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?

Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:01 am

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Will this resolve N/A if neither happens by end of April? I agree with Thagliou that neither is likely to happen in such a short time frame,

predictedNO

@Yev Do you mind if I just push the time back?

predictedYES

@NathanpmYoung I’d be willing to put more in the market if there was a higher chance of an Yes/No outcome

These oblasts are massive, and they're just as dug in as Crimea. Seems more likely to me they manage to control a small amount of Crimea before retaking luhansk/donetsk oblasts. Though most likely I would guess this is resolved N/A.