Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
77
1kṀ52142027
56%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Suggested resolution critera.
This market resolves "Yes" if, according to the Institute for Study War, Ukraine is in control of any territory in Crimea.
This market resolves "No" if, according to the Institute for Study War, Ukraine has control of 80% of either Luhansk or Donetsk Oblasts.
This market resolves "Ambiguous" if neither happens or if there is a nuclear strike prior to either happening.
Oct 8, 3:22pm: Will Ukraine invade Crimea before it takes back Luhansk or Donetsk? → Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:01 am
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
3% chance
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
8% chance
Will Ukraine take back control of Mariupol while Putin is in power?
4% chance
At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?
13% chance
At the end of the war, will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territory they didn’t control at the start?
94% chance
Will Ukraine agree to a peace treaty that gives Russia control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?
59% chance