Background

As reported by the Financial Times and confirmed by Ukrainian legislator Oleksiy Goncharenko, the peace terms discussed in early 2023 would have seen Ukraine regain control of all of the territories captured by Russia since 24 February 2022.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if the amount of territory Ukraine controls following the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is greater than the amount of territory Ukraine would have controlled if the 2023 peace proposal described by the Financial Times had been implemented.

This market will otherwise resolve NO.

Clarifications

This market concerns de facto territorial control.

For the purpose of this market, the following events would mark the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict:

• the implementation of a peace treaty (as opposed to a ceasefire or armistice);

• the surrender of either side;

• the total defeat or collapse of either side, such that it no longer has state capacity; or

• a ten-year cessation of hostilities.

The close date may be extended as necessary.

For related markets, see my Russia-Ukraine dashboard.