By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?
19
85
Ṁ1.7kṀ390
2026
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The question will resolve to yes if the interactive map of the Institute for the Study of War shows that Ukraine controls any part of the Crimea Oblast at the time when a ceasefire (or a peace treaty) is signed.
The Crimea Oblast is as defined in the Ukrainian maps before the 2014 Russian invasion. It includes any outlying islands and other natural formations but excludes rigs or other man-made structures.
If there is no ceasefire or peace signed until the end of 2026, the question will resolve to NA.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?
28% chance
By the end of the Ukraine war Crimea will be a part of Ukraine again?
9% chance
Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
51% chance
Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?
23% chance
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
20% chance
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will Ukraine agree to a peace treaty that gives Russia control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?
38% chance
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will Ukraine take back control of Mariupol while Putin is in power?
32% chance