Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the Trump administration uses U.S. military force to attack or invade Greenland at any point during 2026. This includes any military action, whether limited strikes or full-scale invasion. The resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major news outlets confirming military engagement. Greenland is a territory of Denmark, which is a NATO member, so any military action would constitute an attack on a NATO ally.

Background

Trump and his team are considering "a range of options" to acquire Greenland, including "utilizing the U.S. Military." This rhetoric has intensified following the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that captured President Nicolás Maduro. Trump has cited Russian and Chinese activities in the region as justification for needing Greenland for national security purposes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has indicated the administration's stated goal is to buy Greenland from Denmark, though military options remain officially on the table.

Considerations

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has warned that an American military attack on Greenland would cause the end of NATO, stating "If the United States chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops." Many experts believe that U.S. military action to seize the territory would spell the end of the alliance and mark a new nadir for transatlantic ties. A professor at the Royal Danish Defence College said while Trump is "clearly serious" about his interest in Greenland, it is unlikely he would try to take it by force, noting instead attempts to gain influence through other channels.