Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the US and Denmark reach a formal deal regarding Greenland by December 31, 2026. The deal must involve a binding agreement between the US and Denmark (with Greenland as a party) that transfers some form of sovereignty, control, or significant rights over Greenland to the United States. This includes outright purchase, lease arrangements, or other formal territorial transfers. The deal must involve more than a framework or concept—it must be a finalized, legally binding agreement signed by all relevant parties. The market resolves NO if no such deal is reached by year-end 2026.

Background

Greenland ranks eighth in the world for rare earth reserves, which are critical for weapons systems, electric vehicles, and electronics. As long as Greenland formally remains part of Denmark, the United States cannot buy Greenland unless Denmark agrees to sell it, and Denmark has emphatically and consistently stated that Greenland is not for sale. Negotiations between Denmark, Greenland, and the United States are aimed at ensuring that Russia and China never gain a foothold—economically or militarily—in Greenland. Trump ruled out using force to acquire Greenland at the World Economic Forum in January 2026.

Considerations

Denmark has transferred full authority over Greenland's natural resources, and the benefits flowing from them, to the islanders, meaning any deal would require Greenland's consent as a full party. Greenland is not for sale, Greenlanders don't want to become part of the US, and the only way for the US to take it would be to invade the Kingdom of Denmark and destroy NATO, according to former Danish officials. Only 4% of Americans support taking Greenland by military force, and far more disapprove (73%) than approve (17%) of US efforts to acquire the country.