Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States acquires sovereignty over Greenland before January 1, 2027. Acquisition must be formally recognized through one of the following: (1) a binding international agreement transferring sovereignty from Denmark to the U.S., (2) Greenlandic independence followed by a binding agreement transferring sovereignty to the U.S., or (3) effective U.S. military control and international recognition of U.S. sovereignty. The resolution will be determined by official statements from the U.S. State Department, Danish government, Greenlandic government, and/or UN recognition of territorial status.

Background

Trump has announced he would institute "very high" tariffs against Denmark if it resisted attempts to make Greenland a U.S. territory, and refused to rule out economic or military action against Denmark. Trump announced a 10% tariff on Denmark and seven other European countries, with duties increasing to 25% by June 1 if a deal is not reached.

Greenland is a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, and officials from both Denmark and Greenland have rejected Trump's claims that the U.S. will acquire Greenland "one way or the other". Under Danish law, Greenlandic independence is possible based on the Self-Government Act of 2009, after a referendum in Greenland and approval by the Danish parliament.

If the U.S. annexed Greenland, it would gain access to vast natural resources including an estimated 17.5 billion barrels of offshore crude oil, 4.19 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, and the largest deposits of rare-earth elements outside China.

Considerations

International legal experts consensus is that Greenland's status as part of Denmark is rock solid and any attempt to take over Greenland would be contrary to international law. While Denmark retains sovereignty, the 2009 Self-Government Act recognizes Greenlanders as a people under international law with a right to self-determination, raising questions about whose consent is legally required for territorial transfer. NATO allies have warned that the use of U.S. military force to seize Greenland could threaten the decades-old transatlantic alliance.