US acquires part of Greenland in 2026?
25
1kṀ2896
Dec 31
13%
chance
9

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT, the United States acquires sovereignty or primary/exclusive jurisdiction or control over any defined land territory in Greenland through a binding legal instrument (e.g., treaty, enacted legislation, or executive action), including via force. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

Only binding actions that unambiguously transfer sovereignty or establish primary/exclusive U.S. jurisdiction qualify, even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. Non-binding statements, negotiations, MOUs, basing/access agreements, SOFA/COFA-type arrangements, leases, or commercial concessions do not qualify. Any U.S. rights or control existing at market creation (Jan 7, 2026, 3:11 PT) will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official statements or legal instruments from the U.S., Denmark, or Greenland, with a consensus of credible reporting used if necessary.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Would a base (e.g., diplomatic or military) with extraterritorial status resolve YES?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy