Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).
Update 2025-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A US Navy action against a narco-boat causing 10+ fatalities counts only if it occurs in Venezuelan waters.
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Ambiguous location won't count: If the location of an incident is unclear or disputed, it will not count toward YES. Location must be clearly established (e.g., USN interdictions must be clearly within Venezuelan waters).
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only internationally recognized Venezuelan waters will count; incidents in disputed or solely Venezuelan-claimed areas (e.g., Essequibo maritime claims) will not.
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the narco-boat scenario, incidents only count if clearly within internationally recognized Venezuelan waters (as previously stated).
If the US and Venezuelan navies exchange fire, location is irrelevant; the Venezuelan-waters restriction does not apply to this case.
Update 2025-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Venezuelan military takes action against US targets (e.g., sinking a cruise ship in US waters), this counts as YES regardless of location, consistent with the rule that military-vs-military conflict counts regardless of location.
Update 2025-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A gunfight between smugglers and US Coast Guard (law enforcement) does not count as military conflict, even if 10+ people die. This is not considered an act of war.
Update 2025-10-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will not resolve immediately at the end of 2025. The creator will wait a day or two before resolving, especially if an attack occurred near year-end and final casualty numbers are not yet known.
Military action that takes place in 2025 but is reported after December 31, 2025 can still count toward resolution.
Update 2025-10-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Covert operations that remain unreported will not count. The deaths must be from a confirmed military operation or airstrike. Unconfirmed incidents (e.g., cartel members dying in 'workplace accidents' that might have been US operations) do not qualify.
The creator expects any qualifying military action to be reported quickly, especially given the current administration's communication style.
1,000People are also trading
@Trazyn I'm just posting updates on the situation. I would've said that it should resolve yes if it's relevant
@Lilemont I assumed you meant it as evidence for YES because that was the intuitive inference for me (I have experienced the Israel Palestine markets).
And in general the headline leaves certain context that bettors might find important
I have bet based on comments too
@AlexanderTheGreater I would say "Good thing the law exists otherwise they would have struck Iran without legal basis!" But what is different here from Iran is the Trump admin - before a strike - saying they lack legal justification. They never said anything like that ahead of the Iran strike.
So then this should reduce chances of a strike. I can also see the Trump admin not striking being made into a political win at home where they can showcase "see, we follow the law!!" On the other hand:
Republicans in the United States Senate have voted down legislation that would have required US President Donald Trump to obtain congressional approval for any military attacks on Venezuela ~ Reuters
ok so... I think the goal is still to set everything up and then attack Venezuela. But I see an off-ramp where they can just pack up and go home now so I'd say 50-50 for this market is appropriate. Interestingly enough Metaculus agrees and just dropped 10 points to 50%
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-CARIBBEAN/MILITARY-BUILDUP/egpbbnzyrpq/
"Trust me bro, we're totally not planning anything bro."
@CornCasting The thing is, I now think mission was accomplished when Maduro went to Putin to beg protection.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen How is this mission accomplished exactly? I fail to see a world where the US is like "we spent millions of tax dollars getting our military into place and haha scared Venezuela into asking Russia for help. What a great victory for the US. Ok boys, pack it up and go home, we're done."
I think mission accomplished would be more like Maduro flees the country. In that scenario I think the US would be happy to not intervene militarily and peacefully see a pro-US government install itself in Venezuela.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen This is only mission accomplished if you think this means Maduro will step down soon.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen The guy at the top is the US. Don't ever let anyone gaslight you otherwise. The American people chose him.