Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).
Update 2025-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A US Navy action against a narco-boat causing 10+ fatalities counts only if it occurs in Venezuelan waters.
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Ambiguous location won't count: If the location of an incident is unclear or disputed, it will not count toward YES. Location must be clearly established (e.g., USN interdictions must be clearly within Venezuelan waters).
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only internationally recognized Venezuelan waters will count; incidents in disputed or solely Venezuelan-claimed areas (e.g., Essequibo maritime claims) will not.
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the narco-boat scenario, incidents only count if clearly within internationally recognized Venezuelan waters (as previously stated).
If the US and Venezuelan navies exchange fire, location is irrelevant; the Venezuelan-waters restriction does not apply to this case.
Update 2025-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Venezuelan military takes action against US targets (e.g., sinking a cruise ship in US waters), this counts as YES regardless of location, consistent with the rule that military-vs-military conflict counts regardless of location.
Update 2025-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A gunfight between smugglers and US Coast Guard (law enforcement) does not count as military conflict, even if 10+ people die. This is not considered an act of war.
Update 2025-10-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will not resolve immediately at the end of 2025. The creator will wait a day or two before resolving, especially if an attack occurred near year-end and final casualty numbers are not yet known.
Military action that takes place in 2025 but is reported after December 31, 2025 can still count toward resolution.
Update 2025-10-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Covert operations that remain unreported will not count. The deaths must be from a confirmed military operation or airstrike. Unconfirmed incidents (e.g., cartel members dying in 'workplace accidents' that might have been US operations) do not qualify.
The creator expects any qualifying military action to be reported quickly, especially given the current administration's communication style.
Update 2025-12-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market does not require civilian casualties (e.g., strikes on schools, churches, or weddings) to resolve YES. Military targets or narco-boats meeting the death threshold or airstrike criteria are sufficient.
Update 2025-12-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A Special Forces operation that only kills Maduro (with no other deaths) would NOT resolve YES. The market requires either 10+ combined deaths OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil to resolve YES.
1,000People are also trading
This market is consistently trading above /MikhailTal/us-military-action-again-venezuela which makes little sense.
@MachiNi This market can resolve YES if a military conflict occurs OUTSIDE of Venezuelan territory. The other one cannot. So this one should be strictly higher
@CornCasting Actually as has been pointed out to me further down. The other market can resolve YES if Special Forces are used that assassinate Maduro but no airstrikes occur. This one requires that airstrikes be involved.
@AlvaLindqvist Can I introduce you to literally the entire Jimmy Carter chapter of Manifold history?
@AlvaLindqvist There was a period of Manifold circa 2023-2024 when we were all (maybe unhealthily) obsessed with when 39th President of the US, Jimmy Carter, would die.
Many markets were asking if he would live to see 2025. Many were near 100%.
Then he died on Dec 29, 2024. Much mana changed hands that day. So much so that I think the site slowed down considerably when the news broke, if I recall correctly.
@1bets A strike on Venezuelan military outside of Venezuelan territory could also result in a YES. A Special Forces Operation that only kills Maduro and nobody else would also lead to this market resolving YES and would likely be a huge political win for Trump.
@CornCasting where in the acceptance criteria do you see that a special forces operation to kill Maduro but nobody else dies resolves YES?
@AlexanderTheGreater they assume attack by Palantir drone, not a physical human ..
But those kill drones are useless in Venezuela