Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).
Update 2025-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A US Navy action against a narco-boat causing 10+ fatalities counts only if it occurs in Venezuelan waters.
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Ambiguous location won't count: If the location of an incident is unclear or disputed, it will not count toward YES. Location must be clearly established (e.g., USN interdictions must be clearly within Venezuelan waters).
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only internationally recognized Venezuelan waters will count; incidents in disputed or solely Venezuelan-claimed areas (e.g., Essequibo maritime claims) will not.
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the narco-boat scenario, incidents only count if clearly within internationally recognized Venezuelan waters (as previously stated).
If the US and Venezuelan navies exchange fire, location is irrelevant; the Venezuelan-waters restriction does not apply to this case.
Update 2025-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Venezuelan military takes action against US targets (e.g., sinking a cruise ship in US waters), this counts as YES regardless of location, consistent with the rule that military-vs-military conflict counts regardless of location.
Update 2025-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A gunfight between smugglers and US Coast Guard (law enforcement) does not count as military conflict, even if 10+ people die. This is not considered an act of war.
Update 2025-10-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will not resolve immediately at the end of 2025. The creator will wait a day or two before resolving, especially if an attack occurred near year-end and final casualty numbers are not yet known.
Military action that takes place in 2025 but is reported after December 31, 2025 can still count toward resolution.
Update 2025-10-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Covert operations that remain unreported will not count. The deaths must be from a confirmed military operation or airstrike. Unconfirmed incidents (e.g., cartel members dying in 'workplace accidents' that might have been US operations) do not qualify.
The creator expects any qualifying military action to be reported quickly, especially given the current administration's communication style.
Update 2025-12-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market does not require civilian casualties (e.g., strikes on schools, churches, or weddings) to resolve YES. Military targets or narco-boats meeting the death threshold or airstrike criteria are sufficient.
Update 2025-12-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A Special Forces operation that only kills Maduro (with no other deaths) would NOT resolve YES. The market requires either 10+ combined deaths OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil to resolve YES.
Update 2025-12-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A blockade of ports does not qualify as a military conflict unless it meets the stated criteria (10+ deaths or confirmed airstrike).
Resolution is based on the specific written criteria, not external definitions like UN resolutions on acts of aggression.
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A verified strike on a facility in Venezuela would count as YES (meeting the airstrike criterion).
Proper confirmation is required; unverified claims do not qualify.
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil counts as YES regardless of whether it kills anyone. The 10-death threshold and airstrike criterion are separate conditions (either one is sufficient for YES resolution).
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator has not yet done proper research to confirm whether a reported airstrike occurred. Any believable confirmation would be needed before resolving YES based on the airstrike criterion.
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator is seeking independent confirmation (such as satellite photos) before resolving YES based on Trump's statement about hitting an area in Venezuela.
It remains unclear how the area was "hit" (airstrike vs. other methods) and whether any deaths occurred, both of which are relevant to the resolution criteria.
The creator is not certain an incident actually occurred and requires proper verification before resolution.
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@AndrewHebb pretty sure that's "either military", as in "action by either the US or the VE military"
@Quroe the administration is filled with degenerate polymarket bettors who are putting misinfo into reports to Trump to get him to swing markets
I even tried VPN-ing into Venezuela and hunted for videos, too, in case the US has some sort of mythical "Great Firewall". Still no videos.
The pizza shops are quieting down, so we might infer the Pentagon doesn't have hungry brains hacking away at tasks... https://www.pizzint.watch/
gonna put up a bunch of limits
@Quroe well maybe, but i haven't played a video game in the traditional sense of the term
