Resolves YES if there are 5 straight days of active military operations. Resolves in the spirit of the question: the intent of this question is to gauge whether the conflict will escalate beyond sporadic brief (1 night) operations into a more prolonged conflict.

Things like airstrikes, deployments of ground forces and vehicles who are firing live ammunition, raids on facilities, drone strikes, etc, would count.

Things like patrols of boats within Venezuelan waters, presence of a special forces team that isn't actively engaged in live fire, or spy planes flying overhead would NOT count. Please do not attempt to pedantically litigate in the comments whether some US action constitutes "active military operations". If there's doubt as to whether it does, it probably won't count for this question.

I will not bet in this market so as to remain as objective as possible about the resolution. In the case of a gray area or edge case, I reserve the right to resolve to my best judgment or to a PROB resolution at end of year.