Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).
Update 2025-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A US Navy action against a narco-boat causing 10+ fatalities counts only if it occurs in Venezuelan waters.
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Ambiguous location won't count: If the location of an incident is unclear or disputed, it will not count toward YES. Location must be clearly established (e.g., USN interdictions must be clearly within Venezuelan waters).
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only internationally recognized Venezuelan waters will count; incidents in disputed or solely Venezuelan-claimed areas (e.g., Essequibo maritime claims) will not.
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the narco-boat scenario, incidents only count if clearly within internationally recognized Venezuelan waters (as previously stated).
If the US and Venezuelan navies exchange fire, location is irrelevant; the Venezuelan-waters restriction does not apply to this case.
Update 2025-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Venezuelan military takes action against US targets (e.g., sinking a cruise ship in US waters), this counts as YES regardless of location, consistent with the rule that military-vs-military conflict counts regardless of location.
Update 2025-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A gunfight between smugglers and US Coast Guard (law enforcement) does not count as military conflict, even if 10+ people die. This is not considered an act of war.
Update 2025-10-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will not resolve immediately at the end of 2025. The creator will wait a day or two before resolving, especially if an attack occurred near year-end and final casualty numbers are not yet known.
Military action that takes place in 2025 but is reported after December 31, 2025 can still count toward resolution.
Update 2025-10-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Covert operations that remain unreported will not count. The deaths must be from a confirmed military operation or airstrike. Unconfirmed incidents (e.g., cartel members dying in 'workplace accidents' that might have been US operations) do not qualify.
The creator expects any qualifying military action to be reported quickly, especially given the current administration's communication style.
Update 2025-12-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market does not require civilian casualties (e.g., strikes on schools, churches, or weddings) to resolve YES. Military targets or narco-boats meeting the death threshold or airstrike criteria are sufficient.
Update 2025-12-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A Special Forces operation that only kills Maduro (with no other deaths) would NOT resolve YES. The market requires either 10+ combined deaths OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil to resolve YES.
Update 2025-12-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A blockade of ports does not qualify as a military conflict unless it meets the stated criteria (10+ deaths or confirmed airstrike).
Resolution is based on the specific written criteria, not external definitions like UN resolutions on acts of aggression.
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A verified strike on a facility in Venezuela would count as YES (meeting the airstrike criterion).
Proper confirmation is required; unverified claims do not qualify.
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil counts as YES regardless of whether it kills anyone. The 10-death threshold and airstrike criterion are separate conditions (either one is sufficient for YES resolution).
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator has not yet done proper research to confirm whether a reported airstrike occurred. Any believable confirmation would be needed before resolving YES based on the airstrike criterion.
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator is seeking independent confirmation (such as satellite photos) before resolving YES based on Trump's statement about hitting an area in Venezuela.
It remains unclear how the area was "hit" (airstrike vs. other methods) and whether any deaths occurred, both of which are relevant to the resolution criteria.
The creator is not certain an incident actually occurred and requires proper verification before resolution.
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A CIA drone strike on Venezuelan soil counts as an airstrike and would meet the resolution criteria for YES (regardless of death count, as previously established that airstrikes alone are sufficient).
The creator will conduct additional research and/or wait for better third-party reporting before resolving. Resolution may take a day or more to ensure accuracy.
Update 2025-12-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator acknowledges that reported claims (US forces conducting an airstrike on Venezuelan soil) match the YES criteria, but lacks 100% confidence in the validity of the claims.
Sources are primarily Trump or anonymous officials, and the creator notes concerns about reliability.
The creator is soliciting community input on what level of validation is reasonable to expect, given that hard proof (like footage) may never be available or may take a long time to emerge.
The creator is concerned their own political bias may be affecting their assessment of the available information.
Update 2025-12-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If no further independent reporting emerges to confirm or deny the reported attack, the creator will lean towards resolving YES but will wait longer to allow time for reporting that could debunk the claims.
The creator is seeking community input on what level of validation is reasonable given current information quality (sources being Trump and anonymous officials, with concerns about reliability).
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The content of the claims match the YES criteria in that US forces did a type of airstrike on Venezuelan soil. I have not resolved this market YES yet because I lack 100% confidence in the validity of the claims. The sources seem to be all Trump or anonymous officials. Trump is known for anything from communicating in very nebulous terms to outright lying.
That said, I worry that because of the nature of the operation we likely won't get any hard proof like footage (which we are so used to now for everything) about this ever or for a long time. Maybe I just have to accept that we cannot be 100% certain that YES was correct here for a long time but that's still the better option.
Please chime in with opinions on level of validation that's reasonable to expect here! I worry that my own political bias might be reducing my faith in the available information more than is reasonable.
@AlexanderTheGreater How is that a credible source? I disagree with it being used for a resolution but it seems I was too late....
Oh well time to migrate to metaculus
@Quroe We should at least wait for 2 weeks, I mean none of those sources appear to be compelling to me becasue there is literally no proof of it...
The Venezuelan telegram channels are posting claims that it's just a factory fire and explosion which is corroborated by that factory (same date as alleged strikes)
This resolution was too early imo. Should've waited more and then N/A
@Trazyn The emergency power to unresolve exists if new evidence comes to light, but the reporting threshold to pull the trigger and resolve it seems, to me, justifiable. (I hope these aren't going to be my famous last words.)
@AlexanderTheGreater I think the Colombian president was referring to the fire at a Primazol plant in Maracaibo, which the company and a local Venezuelan official denied was caused by an air strike. The CIA dock strike appears to be a separate incident.
@Trazyn I thought you were looking for a convenient excuse to escape from your debt before the puppy gets it 😂
I don't even know what to do with my debt. I think I'm too far gone now and I'll have to wait for it to zero out and start anew. I think one major mistake I've made is not having an exit strategy and sticking to my guns.
Thank you @AlexanderTheGreater! the chaos begins /realDonaldTrump/will-people-like-the-us-x-venezuela
It looks like the Colombian president has confirmed the attack in a twitter post.
@Xizted Actually it is possible the strike Colombian president is referring to is not the same strike Trump was talking about, at least according to this article. https://www.barrons.com/news/colombia-s-petro-says-us-bombed-suspected-cocaine-factory-in-venezuela-8e7f4bf0
If it was in fact a separate strike, that would mean two air strikes on Venezuelan soil would have gone unnoticed without Trump claiming them. I have a feeling the plan was to keep these strikes as secret but Trump slipped them in an interview to pad his ego.
@AlexanderTheGreater Following this rabbit hole, this is the original post. Throw it through a translator. I think I am satisfied that this is a YES.
