Presidential Election in Venezuela by EOY 2026?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ1.7k

Dec 31

55%

chance

ALL

This question resolves YES if a presidential election takes place in Venezuela on or before December 31, 2026, where:

The election is for the office of President of Venezuela
Voting occurs (whether the election is considered free/fair internationally is not relevant for resolution)
The election is officially conducted by Venezuelan governmental authorities

Resolves NO otherwise.

Update 2026-01-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Venezuelan governmental authorities" means whatever authority controls the territory of Venezuela, including:
- A continuation of the Maduro government
- A U.S. occupation administration
- Any entirely new regime
- In case of civil war, whoever controls Caracas

The market resolves YES if there is an outward appearance of an election (people putting ballots with appropriate phrasing in boxes), regardless of whether the procedure is meaningful.

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https://manifold.markets/B/free-fair-presidential-election-in equivalent market, but only resolves positive for recognized "free and fair" elections

Free & Fair Presidential Election in Venezuela by EOY 2026?

28% chance. This question resolves YES if a presidential election takes place in Venezuela on or before December 31, 2026, where: The election is for the office of President of Venezuela Voting occurs Election is considered generally free & fair by at least one major international observer not including the USA (e.g., OAS or EU or UN observer) The election is officially conducted by Venezuelan governmental authorities Resolves NO otherwise.

What does "Venezuelan governmental authorities" mean?

Must it be the authority presently in power (i.e., a continuation of the Maduro government), or can it be any authority actually in control of Venezuela? And must the authority be instituted by Venezuelans alone, or can it rely partly on international support?

@Juteshire This means whatever authority controls the territory of Venezuela, whether a continuation of the Maduro government, a U.S. occupation administration, some entirely new regime, etc.

I think if there's a civil war, an election conducted by whoever controls Caracas would also count as YES.

I intended this to resolve YES if there's an outward appearance of an election, i.e., people putting ballots with appropriate phrasing in the boxes, regardless of whether this procedure is meaningful.

Relevant market: [Will President Maduro be removed from office before [Date]?]

https://manifold.markets/dynamics/when-coup-in-venezuela-will-a-new-g

sold Ṁ50 NO

https://bsky.app/profile/bloomberg.com/post/3mbjyy44dns2f

Delcy Rodríguez, vice president of Venezuela under Nicolás Maduro before his capture by US forces, will work with the US to transition to a democratically elected government, President Donald Trump said