Resolves YES if, according to my entirely subjective opinion, the United States government assumes effective control over Venezuela for any contiguous duration of time lasting at least two weeks in the next year. Resolves NO if no such period occurs by December 31st, 2026. This can occur directly via military occupation or as a result of a government which is subservient enough to be effectively controlled by the US. As this resolves entirely according to my subjective opinion, I will not bet.
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@Balasar Are there specific actions you think the Venezuela government has done at the behest of Rubio? I would be curious to read about any. Really.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen @strutheo The article linked a month ago claims that the US government has direct control over Venezuela's government revenues and that it explicitly gets a veto on government appointments like the minister of defense, More recently, the US government has effectively taken control of almost all of Venezuela's oil reserves in exchange for essentially nothing. Taken together, I consider these pretty strong evidence in favor of YES.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen This is referring to the speed at which development could take place and not the remarkable nature of the fact that the arrangement exists at all (in direct contravention of Venezuela's constitution, for what it's worth).
Relevant market: [Will President Maduro be removed from office before [Date]?]
https://manifold.markets/dynamics/when-coup-in-venezuela-will-a-new-g