Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?
67
1kṀ12k
Dec 31
16%
chance

Whether the United States, Guyana, another country, or a civil war, this market resolves Yes if Venezuela is in a new entry on Wikipedia's active conflicts page in the Minor or Major Wars categories by the end of 2026. This does not include the existing Colombian-Venezuelan conflict entry. Obvious wiki vandalizm doesn't count either, and Venezuela's participation in the conflict must be actively martial to count if they are added as a new beligerent to an existing war. Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

why would the market go down when the US did all the stuff it just did?

@MaxE Because it’s less likely the conflict will involve 1000+ deaths given one side had its leader captured so early.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy