Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?
69
Ṁ1kṀ14kDec 31
7%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Whether the United States, Guyana, another country, or a civil war, this market resolves Yes if Venezuela is in a new entry on Wikipedia's active conflicts page in the Minor or Major Wars categories by the end of 2026. This does not include the existing Colombian-Venezuelan conflict entry. Obvious wiki vandalizm doesn't count either, and Venezuela's participation in the conflict must be actively martial to count if they are added as a new beligerent to an existing war. Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@MaxE Because it’s less likely the conflict will involve 1000+ deaths given one side had its leader captured so early.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026?
7% chance
Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
10% chance
Will Venezuelans be better off at the end of 2026?
13% chance
Which of these conflicts will turn into a hot war in 2026?
Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?
53% chance
Will Venezuela become more authoritarian in 2026?
18% chance
President of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026?
22% chance
Will Trump visit Venezuela in 2026?
6% chance
Will Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?
93% chance