Will prediction markets on the trustworthiness of users be used to combat fraud?

230Ṁ200

resolved Aug 4

Resolved

N/A

ALL

Idea:

There is currently no good way to flag people for many kinds of fraud (e.g., channeling Mana from socket puppets to main account), and limited ways of doing that for improperly resolved markets.

Users can create prediction markets for this, e.g., "Will @lu be banned within 6 months". This might help admins (not sure if reliable detection is the current bottleneck) by shifting workload to the community, and might be fun to do for some people.

Resolution:

This market will resolve to:

"Yes" if the above idea has been tried (>5 successful markets) and is publicly endorsed by some people doing the user administration OR implemented as a feature

"No" if strong arguments appear against doing this (e.g., bad for community vibes) OR it turns out to be technically infeasible (e.g., easy to exploit), up to my discretion

"N/A" if some fraud-prediction markets are created, but upsides are unclear at close

I will not bet on this market.

Nov 19, 4:02am: ~~Will prediction markets on the trustworthiness of users employed to combat fraud?~~ → Will prediction markets on the trustworthiness of users be used to combat fraud?

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I think the upsides are unclear at this time. Most of the "Will A be banned?" markets seem very inactive. The only productive discussion that I've found is on levifinkelstein: https://manifold.markets/YoungGailean/will-levina-ever-be-banned-for-mark

Will Levina be banned within one year for market manipulation?

18% chance. Resolves yes if Levina is banned, or banned from creating markets, for any period of time because of their market manipulation. Resolves no if that criteria isn’t filled Example below, where Levina is blocking commentors to force a NO resolution. https://manifold.markets/levifinke…

I think grassroots markets will probably happen unless “legislated” against. We already have implicitly vaguely accusatory “Will X resolve Y market correctly?” markets. But this feels a little too close to a character assassination market for me to be comfortable with it.

">5 successful markets" is a bit ambiguous. Successful in identifying someone as untrustworthy or just successful as in not manipulated or resolved incorrectly? Someone could just make loads of markets on random users which wouldn't add much info

Made some more:

small no because it seems likely that the attempt will be itself highly vulnerable to fraud and fail to accurately estimate risk. Hope to be wrong

@lu Comment by @theservy :
Ban seems unlikely, and this market can be abused by yayawong accomplices / alt accounts (by betting either No or Yes on ~Dec 17, whichever generates more profit, and then either having some insignificant activity or committing not to do so). Considering that yayawong has this occasion of abusing the market, trading in this market seems unwise.