Will X/Twitter have a prediction market functionality by the end of 2030?
Basic
9
Ṁ112
2031
28%
chance

The feature should

  • Allow users to make predictions on events

  • Not be behind a paywall/subscription (excluding sitewide paywalls)

  • Integrated within X's interface so users don't have to leave the website to make predictions

  • Shows a publicly viewable record of user's track record

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#Meta-Forecasting
#️ X (Twitter)
#Manifold Business Future
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Not be behind a paywall/subscription

What if X requires a subscription to use the site at all? For example, their recently talked about $1/year for new users to "deter spam bots"...

Then there'd be no additional subscription for prediction markets, but there'd still be a subscription.

@Mira I would resolve YES if new users are behind a paywall but the prediction market feature is not behind a separate paywall.

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