Yeah it's an interesting idea, and I def think there's a large overlap in Manifold & Twitter audiences. I'm not sure exactly how this would work (what are you betting on?)
1. Could be "tweet a question about the future, and people can bet inline on Twitter"
2. Could be "bet on whether this tweet will replicate/be found to be good, in three months"
3. Could be "bet on whether this tweet will get >100 likes"
One important question is also: why do people post on Twitter? What are they trying to get? How about when they post a Manifold market?
Would love to hear y'alls thoughts and other ideas!

@Austin here are some general thoughts on the idea:
Twitter is a large platform with diverse use cases. Prediction market capabilities are likely not appropriate for ~most of Twitter content
Elon seems to personally care about Twitter as a news source, conversation platform, and source of truth - prediction markets provide each of these services in a novel way
The use case seems clear - Twitter users could tweet out prediction markets just like creating a Manifold market, and Twitter users could buy a Twitter 'currency' to predict on them. Community notes could be accompanied by Community predictions.
This feels important for Twitter since, as of now, it basically acts as the public square. Anything that grounds the public square more to the real world seems important
FWIW, if I'm Elon, this is the last thing on my mind during a make-or-break period of time for Twitter's survival. Not something that is particularly likely to improve profitability or bring back / add new advertisers. But, if markets improve and Twitter is still around, this is something that seems to meet Elon's stated goals for owning Twitter
If prediction markets could use real money, this suddenly becomes a much more interesting way to monetize Twitter
In the meantime, prediction markets could be an interesting Twitter Blue feature
@Austin I think you could say things like "Will Biden be the nominee" then add a market, as we do here.
Stop thinking about tweets, start thinking about the ability to make a new kind of tweet.
@Austin "I def think there's a large overlap in Manifold & Twitter audiences"
I think most Manifold users are on Twitter but very few Twitter users are on Manifold
I have no opinion if this will happen, but it would be such amazing news. Maybe the best thing Musk could do to twitter.

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Carson Gale
@NathanpmYoung @RichardHanania @elonmusk @ManifoldMarkets https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-twitter-incorporate-a-predicti?r=Q2Fyc29uR2FsZQ












Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Carson Gale