Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?
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Austin avatar
Austin
is predicting YES at 24%

Yeah it's an interesting idea, and I def think there's a large overlap in Manifold & Twitter audiences. I'm not sure exactly how this would work (what are you betting on?)

1. Could be "tweet a question about the future, and people can bet inline on Twitter"

2. Could be "bet on whether this tweet will replicate/be found to be good, in three months"

3. Could be "bet on whether this tweet will get >100 likes"

One important question is also: why do people post on Twitter? What are they trying to get? How about when they post a Manifold market?


Would love to hear y'alls thoughts and other ideas!

CarsonGale avatar

@Austin here are some general thoughts on the idea:

  • Twitter is a large platform with diverse use cases. Prediction market capabilities are likely not appropriate for ~most of Twitter content

  • Elon seems to personally care about Twitter as a news source, conversation platform, and source of truth - prediction markets provide each of these services in a novel way

  • The use case seems clear - Twitter users could tweet out prediction markets just like creating a Manifold market, and Twitter users could buy a Twitter 'currency' to predict on them. Community notes could be accompanied by Community predictions.

    • This feels important for Twitter since, as of now, it basically acts as the public square. Anything that grounds the public square more to the real world seems important

  • FWIW, if I'm Elon, this is the last thing on my mind during a make-or-break period of time for Twitter's survival. Not something that is particularly likely to improve profitability or bring back / add new advertisers. But, if markets improve and Twitter is still around, this is something that seems to meet Elon's stated goals for owning Twitter

  • If prediction markets could use real money, this suddenly becomes a much more interesting way to monetize Twitter

    • In the meantime, prediction markets could be an interesting Twitter Blue feature

NathanpmYoung avatar

@Austin I think you could say things like "Will Biden be the nominee" then add a market, as we do here.

Stop thinking about tweets, start thinking about the ability to make a new kind of tweet.

JoshuaBlake avatar
Joshua Blake
is predicting NO at 25%

@Austin "I def think there's a large overlap in Manifold & Twitter audiences"

I think most Manifold users are on Twitter but very few Twitter users are on Manifold

TimothyCurrie avatar

I have no opinion if this will happen, but it would be such amazing news. Maybe the best thing Musk could do to twitter.

ManifoldDream avatar

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Carson Gale

@NathanpmYoung @RichardHanania @elonmusk @ManifoldMarkets https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-twitter-incorporate-a-predicti?r=Q2Fyc29uR2FsZQ

ManifoldDream avatar

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Carson Gale

@NathanpmYoung @RichardHanania @elonmusk @ManifoldMarkets https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-twitter-incorporate-a-predicti?r=Q2Fyc29uR2FsZQ