@Austin here are some general thoughts on the idea:

• Twitter is a large platform with diverse use cases. Prediction market capabilities are likely not appropriate for ~most of Twitter content

• Elon seems to personally care about Twitter as a news source, conversation platform, and source of truth - prediction markets provide each of these services in a novel way

• The use case seems clear - Twitter users could tweet out prediction markets just like creating a Manifold market, and Twitter users could buy a Twitter 'currency' to predict on them. Community notes could be accompanied by Community predictions.

  • This feels important for Twitter since, as of now, it basically acts as the public square. Anything that grounds the public square more to the real world seems important

• FWIW, if I'm Elon, this is the last thing on my mind during a make-or-break period of time for Twitter's survival. Not something that is particularly likely to improve profitability or bring back / add new advertisers. But, if markets improve and Twitter is still around, this is something that seems to meet Elon's stated goals for owning Twitter

• If prediction markets could use real money, this suddenly becomes a much more interesting way to monetize Twitter

  • In the meantime, prediction markets could be an interesting Twitter Blue feature

@Austin I think you could say things like "Will Biden be the nominee" then add a market, as we do here.

Stop thinking about tweets, start thinking about the ability to make a new kind of tweet.

@Austin "I def think there's a large overlap in Manifold & Twitter audiences"

I think most Manifold users are on Twitter but very few Twitter users are on Manifold