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um this already happened. how did we all collectively miss this market needing to resolve YES?

Some arbitrage between this and Levine’s “Will I be banned?” market

Does this resolve NO if they aren't banned by market close? (There's a comment discussion, but maybe add it to the description.)

@Mira Yes

Levina was asked if she would block anyone and her response was to edit in rules into the claim. The implication seemed clear to me that breaking any of the rules may well get you blocked,

What else could she do? Promise not to block anyone then regret abuse received and be unable to act by blocking? She is giving all sorts of reason she may block so she still has discretion.

Posting something like "Blocked me and intends to block people in order to misresolve this market!"

might in her view be in breach some of the rules she set such as

"Don’t argue with people over the comments — especially me"

"Listen to the market creator"

I am not sure what you said before being banned but if it was a question that had already been asked then I would say she did what she implied she would do.

I haven't been blocked yet, guess we will see if anyone manages the 3 comments but for the moment I am assuming good faith.

@ChristopherRandles They will not. I was blocked for asking if they would block people. Levina wouldn't bet NO then let someone get 3 comments.

Edit: Apparently they messed up.

This is not ban-worthy, but it is possible things would change in the future.

1) Manifold would need to change rules to forbid market manipulation. Currently it's allowed in general, but they have indicated that they want to reduce the amount of market manipulation

2) Levina would have to break the rules in a major way after that change.

Actually, I see that https://help.manifold.markets/community-guidelines has a recent addition after the WvM market:

General expectations

• Users strive to be excellent to one another.

• Users don’t maliciously take advantage of ambiguity, loopholes, and technicalities, at the cost of others. This is especially true if they are the market creator.

I think this behavior does break those expectations. Therefore, I think it is appropriate for Manifold to take moderation action, as David has done. I still don't think it's ban-worthy, but IMO it's appropriate for Levi to be penalized (by losing their bets on the market that were based on the inappropriate behavior) and people should not do this in the future.

Given that market manipulation isn't even against the rules, and Manifold only bans people for serious violations, this is very unlikely to happen. I only know of one user who has ever been banned, and even then, the ban was notoriously ineffective.

This market is poorly structured - "ever" means it probably can't ever resolve NO. Even if they delete their account, it is possible for them to come back and undelete their account.

@jack Yeah, my assumption is that it means before the closure date, but it should have been clearer in the description.

@jack That’s fair! As it is early, I will correct. How is 1 year for an acceptable close date?

@JosephNoonan I don't think by close date is compatible with the title, which very clearly says (or said, before the edit) "ever".

1 year seems fine as a question, but it's unfair to those who bought yes, like myself.

@jack I’ll give you the 30 Mana back

I was able to exit with only a -14 profit, so whatever

@jack I’ll give you the 14 mana back