OpenAI announces something called "GPT-4.5" or very close to it

'-4.5':6 'announc':2 'call':4 'close':9 'gpt':5 'openai':1 'someth':3

OpenAI announces something new related to Sora

'announc':2 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3 'sora':7

OpenAI announces something new related to Voice Engine

'announc':2 'engin':8 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3 'voic':7

OpenAI announces something new related to DALL-E

'announc':2 'dall':8 'dall-':7 'e':9 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3

'altman':2 'magic/magical/etc':4 'sam':1 'say':3

OpenAI announces something new related to music generation

'announc':2 'generat':8 'music':7 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3

Immediate or scheduled public rollout (even if gradual) of Sora

'even':6 'gradual':8 'immedi':1 'public':4 'rollout':5 'schedul':3 'sora':10

'chatbot':6 'gpt2':5 'gpt2-chatbot':4 'mention':2 'someon':1

Update on the partnership with Figure/humanoid robots

'figure/humanoid':6 'partnership':4 'robot':7 'updat':1

OpenAI announces an improvement to GPT-4 similiar to GPT-4-Turbo, which is not major enough to be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5

'-4':7,11 '-4.5':22 '-5':25 'announc':2 'call':20 'enough':17 'gpt':6,10,21,24 'improv':4 'major':16 'openai':1 'similiar':8 'turbo':12

Temporary technical issues (e.g. mic, presentation, lights, ..., not working)

'e.g':4 'issu':3 'light':7 'mic':5 'present':6 'technic':2 'temporari':1 'work':9

Actual presentation (person talking, video, ...) starts before 10:05 AM

'05':9 '10':8 'actual':1 'person':3 'present':2 'start':6 'talk':4 'video':5

"Regulation" is mentioned, in a legal/policy context

'context':7 'legal/policy':6 'mention':3 'regul':1

A tangible product/device is demonstrated

'demonstr':5 'product/device':3 'tangibl':2

Someone from another (not OAI) company joins on stage

'anoth':3 'compani':6 'join':7 'oai':5 'someon':1 'stage':9

Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity Steering Committee mentioned

'authent':6 'coalit':1 'committe':8 'content':3 'mention':9 'proven':4 'steer':7

'mention':3 'partnership':2 'stackoverflow':1

'competitor':3 'googl':1 'mention':4 'search':2

Any mention of the redirect from chat.openai.com to chatgpt.com

'chat.openai.com':7 'chatgpt.com':9 'mention':2 'redirect':5

Mention of AI used by researchers (use cases, how it can help them, etc.)

'ai':3 'case':8 'etc':14 'help':12 'mention':1 'research':6 'use':4,7

The LMSys Chatbot Arena is referenced or shown 

'arena':4 'chatbot':3 'lmsys':2 'referenc':6 'shown':8

At least one specific industry mentioned as userbase or a use case for AI tools

'ai':14 'case':12 'industri':5 'least':2 'mention':6 'one':3 'specif':4 'tool':15 'use':11 'userbas':8

Someone says "patience" or "patient" (not as a noun)

'noun':9 'patienc':3 'patient':5 'say':2 'someon':1

Altman lied about what would be featured at the event in his X posts

'altman':1 'event':10 'featur':7 'lie':2 'post':14 'would':5 'x':13

In the market creator's opinion, the average reaction to the event by journalists is "mixed" or negative

'averag':8 'creator':4 'event':12 'journalist':14 'market':3 'mix':16 'negat':18 'opinion':6 'reaction':9

Any type of new software, AI or not, usable by anyone in the United States willing to pay, is released by OpenAI on the day of the event

'ai':6 'anyon':11 'day':25 'event':28 'new':4 'openai':22 'pay':18 'releas':20 'softwar':5 'state':15 'type':2 'unit':14 'usabl':9 'will':16

In the market creator's opinion, a live demonstration of an OpenAI product is marred by a bug

'bug':18 'creator':4 'demonstr':9 'live':8 'mar':15 'market':3 'openai':12 'opinion':6 'product':13

Any of this words: "Agent", "Agents" or "Agentic" are mentioned

Sam Altman says something along the lines of “what we have now is nothing/laughable compared to what is coming later this year/next year.” 

'along':5 'altman':2 'come':19 'compar':15 'later':20 'line':7 'nothing/laughable':14 'sam':1 'say':3 'someth':4 'year':23 'year/next':22

The start of the stream is delayed at least 5 minutes

'5':10 'delay':7 'least':9 'minut':11 'start':2 'stream':5

GPT-4 becomes cheaper (API price reduced)

'-4':2 'api':5 'becom':3 'cheaper':4 'gpt':1 'price':6 'reduc':7

Presenters give away $10,000 or more in total of free stuff as part of presentation

'000':5 '10':4 'away':3 'free':11 'give':2 'part':14 'present':1,16 'stuff':12 'total':9

The official stream pictures someone wearing a mask (for COVID-19 prevention)

'-19':11 'covid':10 'mask':8 'offici':2 'pictur':4 'prevent':12 'someon':5 'stream':3 'wear':6

An OpenAI employee makes a major gaffe (in the market creator's opinion) that is featured on the front page of the New York Times

'creator':11 'employe':3 'featur':16 'front':19 'gaff':7 'major':6 'make':4 'market':10 'new':23 'openai':2 'opinion':13 'page':20 'time':25 'york':24

Something related to phone calls and ChatGPT

'call':5 'chatgpt':7 'phone':4 'relat':2 'someth':1

Any mention of deepfakes (including any reference to audio or video identity spoofing)

'audio':9 'deepfak':4 'ident':12 'includ':5 'mention':2 'refer':7 'spoof':13 'video':11

Films or the film industry (or related topics) mentioned

'film':1,4 'industri':5 'mention':9 'relat':7 'topic':8

Announcement of software that can automatically make phone calls on user's behalf

'announc':1 'automat':6 'behalf':13 'call':9 'make':7 'phone':8 'softwar':3 'user':11

Announcement of generally intelligent model using speech as input and speech as output, with no intermediate models

'announc':1 'general':3 'input':9 'intellig':4 'intermedi':16 'model':5,17 'output':13 'speech':7,11 'use':6

Greg Brockman creates a new AI voice assistant/personality during the demo and gives it a custom name

'ai':6 'assistant/personality':8 'brockman':2 'creat':3 'custom':16 'demo':11 'give':13 'greg':1 'name':17 'new':5 'voic':7

Someone says “magic” during the livestream

'livestream':6 'magic':3 'say':2 'someon':1

OpenAI announces improved memory abilities for ChatGPT

'abil':5 'announc':2 'chatgpt':7 'improv':3 'memori':4 'openai':1

'altman':2 'blue':6 'sam':1 'shirt':9 't-shirt':7 'wear':4

'altman':2 'pink':6 'sam':1 'wear':4 'wig':7

Something with an anthropomorphic name is announced

'announc':7 'anthropomorph':4 'name':5 'someth':1

The word "or" is said in the first 3 minutes of the livestream (with someone speaking)

'3':9 'first':8 'livestream':13 'minut':10 'said':5 'someon':15 'speak':16 'word':2

Llama, Claude, or Gemini mentioned by name

'claud':2 'gemini':4 'llama':1 'mention':5 'name':7

A less censored model, or an option to make existing models less censored, is announced.

'announc':15 'censor':3,13 'exist':10 'less':2,12 'make':9 'model':4,11 'option':7

On X, during May 13, Eliezer Yudkowsky criticizes OpenAI or its employees for endangering human civilization

'13':5 'civil':16 'critic':8 'eliez':6 'employe':12 'endang':14 'human':15 'may':4 'openai':9 'x':2 'yudkowski':7

A model is announced with a name like GPT-[Word] or GPT-4-[Word]

'-4':13 'announc':4 'gpt':9,12 'like':8 'model':2 'name':7 'word':10,14

Something is announced which is not specifically a search engine but which could still be reasonably viewed as a significant new threat to Google Search 

'announc':3 'could':13 'engin':10 'googl':24 'new':21 'reason':16 'search':9,25 'signific':20 'someth':1 'specif':7 'still':14 'threat':22 'view':17

Something related to live translation with voice in/out

'in/out':8 'live':4 'relat':2 'someth':1 'translat':5 'voic':7

Someone says "Accelerate", "Acceleration", "Accelerated", "Accelerating", or "E/Acc"

'acceler':3,4,5,6 'e/acc':8 'say':2 'someon':1

There is a reveal in the form of "Actually, this [voice/video/script] your thought came from a person was made with generative AI"

'actual':9 'ai':22 'came':14 'form':7 'generat':21 'made':19 'person':17 'reveal':4 'thought':13 'voice/video/script':11

OpenAI does not reveal GPT-5, but does say we should expect it before 2025 (Includes phrasing like "Our next flagship model" or "GPT-4's successor")

'-4':25 '-5':6 '2025':15 'expect':12 'flagship':21 'gpt':5,24 'includ':16 'like':18 'model':22 'next':20 'openai':1 'phrase':17 'reveal':4 'say':9 'successor':27

'3':1 'one':6 'peopl':2 'stage':4 'time':7

'basic':4 'comput':5 'say':2 'someon':1 'univers':3

OpenAI announces an existing model will be open-sourced

'announc':2 'exist':4 'model':5 'open':9 'open-sourc':8 'openai':1 'sourc':10

A rumour is mentioned/addressed and confirmed untrue

'confirm':6 'mentioned/addressed':4 'rumour':2 'untru':7

Something related to education/academia/students (of any age), or framed as useful for users for these purposes

'age':7 'education/academia/students':4 'frame':9 'purpos':16 'relat':2 'someth':1 'use':11 'user':13

Israeli flag showing at any time during the livestreaming

'flag':2 'isra':1 'livestream':9 'show':3 'time':6

Microsoft stock up 1% from its level the start of the livestream 1 hour after the stream finishes

'1':4,13 'finish':18 'hour':14 'level':7 'livestream':12 'microsoft':1 'start':9 'stock':2 'stream':17

Anyone shown in the livestream is wearing a tie

'anyon':1 'livestream':5 'shown':2 'tie':9 'wear':7

Something is called "GPT-4-Omni", "GPT-4o", etc

'-4':5 '4o':9 'call':3 'etc':10 'gpt':4,8 'gpt-4o':7 'omni':6 'someth':1

The opening credits and/or music are announced as AI generated

'ai':9 'and/or':4 'announc':7 'credit':3 'generat':10 'music':5 'open':2

In general, resolution will err towards resolving things YES in ambiguous situations. If it seems like something might count according to the spirit of the answer but the letter is unclear, it will probably count. If the event is postponed, this market will be extended until the event occurs.

Prop Bets

🤖 AI

🤖 OpenAI

🖥️ Technology

'announc':4 'chines':1 'gpt':3 'languag':2

'announc':4 'gpt':3 'korean':1 'languag':2

Chat GPT-5 release date or timeframe information given

'-5':3 'chat':1 'date':5 'given':9 'gpt':2 'inform':8 'releas':4 'timefram':7

Something related to DALL-E / Image generation

'dall':5 'dall-':4 'e':6 'generat':8 'imag':7 'relat':2 'someth':1

Someone is announced in a new role / position 

'announc':3 'new':6 'posit':8 'role':7 'someon':1

Announcing a partnership with another company

'announc':1 'anoth':5 'compani':6 'partnership':3

'ai':4 'pornographi':5 'relat':2 'someth':1

Something related to economics / finance / stock trading / money management 

'econom':4 'financ':5 'manag':9 'money':8 'relat':2 'someth':1 'stock':6 'trade':7

'chatbot':5 'detail':1 'gpt2':4 'gpt2-chatbot':3

Partnership with the government of a country

Something Manifold finds disappointing (in a poll created after the announcement)

'announc':11 'creat':8 'disappoint':4 'find':3 'manifold':2 'poll':7 'someth':1

A new physical product in the same niche as the Rabbit R1 or the Humane AI Pin

'ai':16 'human':15 'new':2 'nich':8 'physic':3 'pin':17 'product':4 'r1':12 'rabbit':11

Announcement of model with a new "personality", less refusals, or different RLHF

'announc':1 'differ':11 'less':8 'model':3 'new':6 'person':7 'refus':9 'rlhf':12

Partnership on data collection with other companies

'collect':4 'compani':7 'data':3 'partnership':1

'-4':2,9 'cheaper':5 'gpt':1,8 'lite':3 'version':6

Access to a GPT-4 level model is now free

'-4':5 'access':1 'free':10 'gpt':4 'level':6 'model':7

The ability for ChatGPT to make or be integrated with phone calls

'abil':2 'call':12 'chatgpt':4 'integr':9 'make':6 'phone':11

ChatGPT with a knowledge cutoff that is always recent (within 48h)

'48h':11 'alway':8 'chatgpt':1 'cutoff':5 'knowledg':4 'recent':9 'within':10

Live translation through voice input/output

'input/output':5 'live':1 'translat':2 'voic':4

'direct':2 'relat':3 'robot':5 'someth':1

'creation':5 'music':4 'relat':2 'someth':1

Something related to deepfake (audio and/or video) detection

'and/or':6 'audio':5 'deepfak':4 'detect':8 'relat':2 'someth':1 'video':7

https://twitter.com/sama/status/1788989777452408943

Sam Altman

🤖❤️ AI Alignment

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

Technology

AI Media Creation

Resolves positively if Apple announces that OpenAI will partner with them on Siri. The question still resolves positively even if few details are provided regarding the partnership. An official statement during the main keynote of WWDC 2024 is needed,  something like "we partnered with OpenAI to improve Siri" or "Siri will be running the latest OpenAI models" (non-exhaustive list).

🍎 Apple

📱 WWDC 2024

https://twitter.com/kosenjuu/status/1784952955294421215

Resolves YES if "gpt2-chatbot" is confirmed to be GPT-4.5/GPT-5/OpenAI's next big model. 

an incrementally-improved gpt-4 model would not count

(click onto the "Direct Chat" tab, then select "gpt2-chatbot" as the model).

GPT-4 speculation

GPT-5 Speculation

'2025':6 'breakthrough':3 'neither':1 'occur':4

In the rapidly evolving field of artificial intelligence, significant advancements can come from anywhere. As we approach 2025, the debate intensifies: Will the next major breakthrough in AI come from the academic corridors of universities, known for their groundbreaking research and freedom of thought, or will it emerge from the dynamic and resource-rich environment of a private company, driven by practical applications and market demands? Place your bets on whether academia or industry will lead us into the next frontier of AI. This market resolves to 'University' if the breakthrough is academically sourced, and 'Private Company' if a corporate entity claims the innovation.

: The breakthrough is primarily attributed to a university or academic institution. This includes cases where the majority of research, development, or intellectual property originates from an academic setting.

: The breakthrough is primarily attributed to a private company. This includes cases where the development, funding, or commercialization is led by the company.

   - If a breakthrough results from a collaboration between a university and a private company, the outcome will be determined by the leading contributor. This is assessed based on:

: The sector holding the primary patents will be considered the origin.

: If the key research paper or finding associated with the breakthrough lists a university or company as the primary affiliation of the first author, that sector will be favored.

: The sector providing the majority of funding or resources for the breakthrough project.

   - The market will resolve based on credible announcements from recognized authorities in AI research and development (e.g., major tech news outlets, official press releases, patent filings).

   - If a breakthrough is announced, the criteria outlined above will be applied to determine the winning category.

   - The market will be closed for trading one month prior to the resolution date to ensure all information is accounted for in the final decision.

If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.

I will ignore fun games, at my discretion. (Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)

Some clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description. My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines). Some previous comments I did.

1- To decide whether a given program is a LLM, I'll rely in the media and the nomenclature the creators give to it. If they choose to call it a LLM or some term that is related, I'll consider. Alternatively, a model that markets itself as a chess engine (or is called as such by the mainstream media) is unlikely to be qualified as a large language model.

2- The model can write as much as it want to reason about the best move. But it can't have external help beyond what is already in the weights of the model. For example, it can't access a chess engine or a chess game database. 

I won't bet on this market and I will refund anyone who feels betrayed by this new description and had open bets by 28th Mar 2023. This market will require judgement.

Technical AI Timelines

♟️ Chess

New York Mets beat Milwaukee Brewers - Mar 29

'29':8 'beat':4 'brewer':6 'mar':7 'met':3 'milwauke':5 'new':1 'york':2

Baltimore Orioles beat Los Angeles Angels - Mar 28

'28':8 'angel':5,6 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'los':4 'mar':7 'oriol':2