OpenAI Monday Livestream Prop Bets [10 AM PT]
340
7kṀ77k
resolved May 14
Resolved
NO
OpenAI announces something called "GPT-4.5" or very close to it
Resolved
NO
OpenAI announces something new related to Sora
Resolved
YES
OpenAI announces something new related to Voice Engine
Resolved
NO
OpenAI announces something new related to DALL-E
Resolved
YES
Sam Altman is on the livestream
Resolved
NO
Ilya is on the live stream
Resolved
NO
Event lasts more than 90 minutes
Resolved
NO
Sam Altman says Magic/Magical/etc
Resolved
NO
OpenAI announces something new related to music generation
Resolved
NO
Immediate or scheduled public rollout (even if gradual) of Sora
Resolved
NO
Someone mentions the gpt2-chatbot
Resolved
NO
Update on the partnership with Figure/humanoid robots
Resolved
NO
Someone says "delve"
Resolved
NO
New partnership announced
Resolved
YES
OpenAI announces an improvement to GPT-4 similiar to GPT-4-Turbo, which is not major enough to be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5
Resolved
NO
Someone says the word "Sudoku"
Resolved
YES
AGI/ASI mentioned
Resolved
YES
Temporary technical issues (e.g. mic, presentation, lights, ..., not working)
Resolved
YES
Mira Murati joins on stage
Resolved
NO
Greg Brockman joins on stage

In general, resolution will err towards resolving things YES in ambiguous situations. If it seems like something might count according to the spirit of the answer but the letter is unclear, it will probably count. If the event is postponed, this market will be extended until the event occurs.

Submission Guidelines:

  • Be clear when a submission is about someone saying exact words and use quotation marks around those words to indicate this.

  • Submit answers that might or might not happen, nothing too likely or unlikely.

  • Make your answer submissions as clear and descriptive as possible.

  • Please do not submit subjective answers, everyone should agree if an option resolves yes or no regardless of their values.

  • Please do not submit options that require counting multiple instances of something occurring, or anything else that is difficult to keep track of.

  • Please don't submit significantly more answers than anyone else.

  • I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for quality control reasons.

  • Submitted options may be edited to make the resolution criteria more objective.


    Moderators are also welcome to edit options for clarity, N/A low quality options, and to resolve options as the event airs.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,911
2Ṁ1,010
3Ṁ771
4Ṁ592
5Ṁ240
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy