Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

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does the ai have to be an authority figure? or is it enough that people just worship the idea of ai?

@CampbellHutcheson Do you have a specific example here?

I was imagining the AI as the deity that people sought guidance from / worshipped.

If there was a church of AI where there isn’t a specific LLM that they worship, but they worship the concept of AI as bringing light to humanity, that could resolve yes.

The key here is that people have to be seeking moral guidance and consultation from the AI in an organized manner.

As an example a meet up group where people talk about how great AI is as a tech tool wouldn’t count because they aren’t using it as a moral compass.

Happy to keep clarifying here if I haven’t answered your question.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES


The self-driving car pioneer said there are “a couple thousand people” coming together to build a spiritual connection between humans and AI

predicts YES

@firstuserhere yeah, getting close...

predicts NO

@JamesDillard although "AI" does not necessarily = LLM

Does it count if the adherents don't know it's an AI?

Does it have to be 10,000 people in the same cult (or pastor etc.) or a grand total of 10,000 people who have AIs as religious authorities?

predicts YES

@manyu i do think they need to know it's an AI, although if you have a specific case, I'm happy to take a look at it.

if we have two different groups worshipping LLMs that add up to 10k, the market resolves to yes

predicts YES

How serious do they have to be? There probably is "meaningful number (>10,000)" of Pastafarians today.

@ArmandodiMatteo There are literally zero Pastafarians.

predicts NO

Random-question-which-I-think-would-help-intuitions: How long do cults usually take to form (to 10k)? How long do various other groups take to form (like the mentioned ostrich racing ;) )

(Though the question is still vague about whether someone using chatgpt in the place of a catholic pastor, but who must still follow the roughly standard catholic practices counts or not)

Mostly because, even if we get some odd sect in some town that manages to get a bunch of people following a LLM, I don't think they'd reach 10k in five years? I imagine UFO cults took longer to get up off the ground, and they had the benefit of background UFO conspiracy stuff.

Internet, however, makes it significantly more likely. It is also harder to count actually-treating, such as if some possibly-serious person has an LLM do twitch streams that are 99% popular for the meme.

But I just don't have great intuitions for how quickly certain groups can grow. Obviously some companies can grow surprisingly quickly, but there's a lot more friction to joining a 'LLM worship'.

predicts NO

I don't think it should as it currently stands. The creators frame it as 'helping your pastor', the pastor would stay as a higher authority figure.

@jacksonpolack Sure, but typically there is also a higher authority figure than the pastor, be they bishop or deity. Does the market only resolve if the AI is the highest authority?

@MartinRandall the intent of the question is that the LLM fills the role of the deity, although the adherents don't have to call it a deity per se.

As an example, if they said "I follow the way of AI" rather than "I worship AI", I think it still counts.

@JamesDillard maybe change "a religious authority" to "the religious authority"?

Although... what about polytheism? If there are multiple deities, one of which is an AI, how does that resolve?

predicts YES

@MartinRandall polytheism resolves as yes for sure.

i can see how religious authority figure can be misleading, but I meant it in the sense of deity, not in the sense of a teacher.


@jack Do you want to make a large bet? I can do up to M100k @ 60%. Can be virtualized if you don't want to tie up money.

predicts NO

@Mira Thanks but the price is too low. I'd be looking for 80-90%

@Mira I think that James will resolve this YES, but I expect the actual result to be NO.

That is, I do not think he correctly understands the concept of a religious authority figure.

predicts YES

Some qualitative comparisons for what 10,000 people feels like:

  1. More than 10k people often visit Antarctica in a week in summers.

  2. Luxury watch collectors in the US ~10k

  3. There are ~10,000 Tornado chasers in the US

  4. ~10,000 sand sculptors in the world

  5. Approximately 10,000 people in the U.S. are legally practicing falconry.

  6. ~10-15k wing-suit flyers per year

  7. ~10,000 penguin counters in the world

  8. Arctic Circle Travelers are estimated around 10k annually

  9. Lawn Mower Racers - ~10k annually

  10. Toe Wrestling Competitors - ~10k annually

  11. Professional Air Guitarists - ~13k annually

  12. Ostrich Riders - ~12k annually

  13. Pumpkin Boat Racers has ~10k annual participants in the US

  14. Quidditch Players: Inspired by Harry Potter, ~25,000 people play in organized leagues globally.

  15. Swamp Soccer Players - approximately 10,000 people participate globally.

  16. Underwater Pumpkin Carvers are ~10k worldwide, though mostly in the US

Some religious examples:

  1. Raelism - a UFO religion

    By the early 2010s, the group was claiming 60,000 members internationally

  2. Aetherius society - a religion to worship the "cosmic masters" and extraterrestrial species has ~10k global members

  3. Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster - 10s of 1000s of members

predicts YES

@firstuserhere TIL that lawn mower racing is a thing, along with toe wrestling, ostrich riding, pumpkin boat racing, quidditch IRL, and swamp soccer.

predicts YES

@firstuserhere this is amazing data. Tweet it! Where's it from?

I think the basic problem here is that the author of the market is almost certainly not religious, and likely does not really understand the concept of a "religious authority figure."

It is virtually certain that people will use LLMs in religion just as they do in anything else. That by itself is not remotely close to matching the idea of a "religious authority figure."

predicts YES

@DavidBolin clearly you don't know me! i meant the market the way I set it up - my bet is that a meaningful number of people adopt an LLM as their religious teacher, not that they'll use it in the practice of their religion.