Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030? | Manifold

Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?

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I am a graduate student in a STEM field. I am interested in using LLMs to automate the academic writing process, though I have found current models (GPT-4, Claude 2) to be generally poor academic writers. As LLMs improve, I will continue to explore whether they can be used to write academic manuscripts.

This market resolves YES if by 2030 I am first-author on published peer-reviewed journal article in which >40% of the text was written by an LLM. I plan to publish about 1 (or slightly fewer) journal article per year over this period.

I will update this market with any progress I make.

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Are we only counting parts of the paper that are copied verbatim? Or does it count if you use the model's ideas to write some part of the paper (perhaps while including a few terms that the model used that you happened to particularly like)?

@cece I'm only going to counts the parts (or words) of the paper that are copied verbatim, since otherwise the percent attributable to the LLM is pretty subjective.

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Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?

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Will an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

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Related questions

Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Will an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?

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