Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?

I am a graduate student in a STEM field. I am interested in using LLMs to automate the academic writing process, though I have found current models (GPT-4, Claude 2) to be generally poor academic writers. As LLMs improve, I will continue to explore whether they can be used to write academic manuscripts.

This market resolves YES if by 2030 I am first-author on published peer-reviewed journal article in which >40% of the text was written by an LLM. I plan to publish about 1 (or slightly fewer) journal article per year over this period.

I will update this market with any progress I make.

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Are we only counting parts of the paper that are copied verbatim? Or does it count if you use the model's ideas to write some part of the paper (perhaps while including a few terms that the model used that you happened to particularly like)?

@cece I'm only going to counts the parts (or words) of the paper that are copied verbatim, since otherwise the percent attributable to the LLM is pretty subjective.

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