Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?
10
210Ṁ1682030
65%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I am a graduate student in a STEM field. I am interested in using LLMs to automate the academic writing process, though I have found current models (GPT-4, Claude 2) to be generally poor academic writers. As LLMs improve, I will continue to explore whether they can be used to write academic manuscripts.
This market resolves YES if by 2030 I am first-author on published peer-reviewed journal article in which >40% of the text was written by an LLM. I plan to publish about 1 (or slightly fewer) journal article per year over this period.
I will update this market with any progress I make.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?
25% chance
Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?
71% chance
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
82% chance
Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?
34% chance
Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?
25% chance
Will an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?
76% chance
Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?
7% chance
Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?
34% chance
By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?
11% chance
LLMs to the moon? (By 2030)
49% chance