Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030? | Manifold

Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?

10

210Ṁ168

2030

65%

chance

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6H

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1M

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I am a graduate student in a STEM field. I am interested in using LLMs to automate the academic writing process, though I have found current models (GPT-4, Claude 2) to be generally poor academic writers. As LLMs improve, I will continue to explore whether they can be used to write academic manuscripts.

This market resolves YES if by 2030 I am first-author on published peer-reviewed journal article in which >40% of the text was written by an LLM. I plan to publish about 1 (or slightly fewer) journal article per year over this period.

I will update this market with any progress I make.

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Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

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Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

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