MANIFOLD
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
60
Ṁ1.1kṀ7.4k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
It's called Sonnet 4.5
Resolved
NO
It will have Audio(Output) modality
Resolved
NO
It will have Video(Input) modality
Resolved
NO
It will have Audio(Input) modality
Resolved
NO
It will have been released in H1 2025
Resolved
NO
It will have Video(Output) modality
Resolved
NO
It can score Bronze or higher on IMO
Resolved
NO
It is SOTA according to Chatbot Arena Leaderboard
Resolved
YES
It will have been released in H2 2025
Resolved
N/A
It is called Claude 4 (eg 4.x sonnet acceptable)
Resolved
NO
It is called Claude 3
Resolved
N/A
It is called Claude 5
Resolved
N/A
It is not called Claude N, for some integer N
Resolved
N/A
It is called Claude 6
Resolved
N/A
It is called Claude 4 (eg 4.x sonnet is acceptable)
Resolved
N/A
It is called Claude 5 (eg 5.x is acceptable)

"Best" refers to the model I think is best/most advanced, on December 31st, 2025.

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ah i'm realizing this is messy. does this one intend for 4.5 to not count? hm

@Bayesian Yeah, I meant for it to be an integer, not a decimal number

@CDBiddulph yeah i'd rather N/A all of these bc plausibly ppl understood the previous options to include decimal numbers but the existence of your option seems to imply the previous ones did not allow decimal numbers, or basically the set of all these options made the previous meaning seem less ambiguous than it was, so yea for simplicity I'll N/A, may recreate the options without this ambiguity later though, mb

sold Ṁ0 NO

@Bayesian the "for some integer N" seems to make very clear that a decimal is not allowed, no? I'm surprised to hear someone say that one is ambiguous.

I guess what you're saying though is that the other options were ambiguous, not this one.

this option seemed ambiguous, it was just:

It is called Claude 4

Which didn't distinguish between allowing or not allowing eg opus 4.1. So i edited to

It is called Claude 4 (eg 4.x sonnet acceptable)

But tbh, reasonable ppl may disagree and there are 26 traders and i think it makes more sense to N/A this option and create a new one that makes this clear. So I will do that now

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Bayesian the year in the description is 2024, should be 2025

ty

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