Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

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2026

82%

chance

ALL

On par with current google search usage or current smart phone usage. If most people use a LLM in any capacity at least once per day market resolves to YES. subject to my judgement. I won't participate in this market

To clarify "by" in this context means whether this will be true at the close date. I won't resolve before then.

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They don’t know that google search and autocomplete on every modern phone is just LLMs

@Gigacasting Also all translation - page translate, google translate, translation on social media, autogenerated youtube etc. Maybe you are going to argue that the autosuggestion model running on iphone keyboards isn't "large", but I would think that the models used in translation are considered LLM by most.

I argue that this should probably be resolved or clarified, because right now I assert that a majority of people see and interact with LLM on a daily basis.

@floomby To clarify "by" in this context means whether this will be true at the close date. I won't resolve before then.

How do you plan to assess it? Google trends suggest it's very far although I'm not sure how well it reflects usage. I'd guess it does very well though.

@na_pewno simply by observing the world around me. Probably not using any kind of data

@DylanSlagh And I assume "the world around you" is disproportionately filled with early adopter tech people?

@jonsimon not particularly. On social media yes admittedly. As I said in the description, on par with search engine usage and smart phone usage. 80% of people in the US own a smart phone. So that would be a good benchmark. So it's a very high bar. I think the most likely YES scenario is if every google search result contains output from a LLM