On par with current google search usage or current smart phone usage. If most people use a LLM in any capacity at least once per day market resolves to YES. subject to my judgement. I won't participate in this market
To clarify "by" in this context means whether this will be true at the close date. I won't resolve before then.
@Gigacasting Also all translation - page translate, google translate, translation on social media, autogenerated youtube etc. Maybe you are going to argue that the autosuggestion model running on iphone keyboards isn't "large", but I would think that the models used in translation are considered LLM by most.
I argue that this should probably be resolved or clarified, because right now I assert that a majority of people see and interact with LLM on a daily basis.
@floomby To clarify "by" in this context means whether this will be true at the close date. I won't resolve before then.
@DylanSlagh And I assume "the world around you" is disproportionately filled with early adopter tech people?
@jonsimon not particularly. On social media yes admittedly. As I said in the description, on par with search engine usage and smart phone usage. 80% of people in the US own a smart phone. So that would be a good benchmark. So it's a very high bar. I think the most likely YES scenario is if every google search result contains output from a LLM