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I’ve decided to resolve YES. Google search is the biggest one, description says “on par with current google search usage” and LLMs are part of almost every google search. That definitely wasn’t obvious when the market was created! Also, LLMs are part of text prediction like typing on an iphone, home assistants like Alexa and Google Home, and i see my workers use stuff like copilot daily.

I consider myself an early adopter, and I have not jumped aboard. That is what I go by.

Total worldwide LLM usage is at about 16%. That seems well short of "ubiquitous" to me.

@nonnihil ah, but you forget that the criteria is "at least once a day"

Google search now runs an LLM on every query. That counts

People pay for ChatGPT

Some companies use chatbots for support

Developers vibe-code

Gemini is built into Android phones

Siri is now an LLM

Alexa is an LLM

Surely all that usage counts for something

Most people... in the US? Worldwide? That you personally interact with?

@JoeandSeth "On par with current google search usage or current smart phone usage" It's in the description. Subjective criteria. The market was created in 2023

https://bsky.app/profile/miaow.ing/post/3m7urjqvevc2x

getting frequent phone calls from LLMs by end of 2025 is pretty high bar ngl, wouldn't have expected that early 2023 ahaha

Google search gives me an LLM-generated result 30-50 percent of the time on the front page. Combine this with the popularity of ChatGPT and other assistants, LLM-generated suggestions on many websites, google translate using an LLM and other mentiones below, I'd say it's safe to resolve this Yes by now.

@ProjectVictory As per description, the market can not resolve before close date

They don’t know that google search and autocomplete on every modern phone is just LLMs

@Gigacasting Also all translation - page translate, google translate, translation on social media, autogenerated youtube etc. Maybe you are going to argue that the autosuggestion model running on iphone keyboards isn't "large", but I would think that the models used in translation are considered LLM by most.

I argue that this should probably be resolved or clarified, because right now I assert that a majority of people see and interact with LLM on a daily basis.

@floomby To clarify "by" in this context means whether this will be true at the close date. I won't resolve before then.

@therealfloomby Is the autocomplete model a transformer model, with attention and KV and tokens? Or some other ML setup?

@EvanDaniel As of IOS 17 in 2023, it is based on transformers. It wasn’t when this market was created 👀

How do you plan to assess it? Google trends suggest it's very far although I'm not sure how well it reflects usage. I'd guess it does very well though.

@na_pewno simply by observing the world around me. Probably not using any kind of data

@DylanSlagh And I assume "the world around you" is disproportionately filled with early adopter tech people?

@jonsimon not particularly. On social media yes admittedly. As I said in the description, on par with search engine usage and smart phone usage. 80% of people in the US own a smart phone. So that would be a good benchmark. So it's a very high bar. I think the most likely YES scenario is if every google search result contains output from a LLM