Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026? | Manifold

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

14

Ṁ110Ṁ257

Dec 31

17%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?

Will an LLM score >=95% on SimpleBench before 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?

Related questions

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?

Will an LLM score >=95% on SimpleBench before 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?