What organization will top the LLM leaderboards on LMArena at end of 2025? ๐ค๐
17
30kแน68152026
26%
Google / DeepMind
31%
OpenAI
8%
Anthropic / Claude
19%
xAI / Grok
3%
Meta / Facebook
6%
DeepSeek
7%
A week into January 2025, Polymarket has it at 36-33 for Google vs OpenAI. With xAI / Grok a dark horse next at 12% -- as we anticipate Grok 3. Anthropic also a player at 10%.
https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025
We will resolve this based on what is on the LMArena website when the clock strike midnight on Dec 31st 2025. New York time.
Also we will respect ties. If two (or more) organizations tie for first according to LMArena we will assign joint winners. We will judge based on the
"overall" ELO leaderboards on the LMArena website.
https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard
Currently Google and OpenAI are tied for first.
Let's make this a fun, high subsidies market.
I will be betting this one.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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