Resolves YES if by end of day Dec 31 (Brazil local time), Bolsonaro officially concedes the election, as reported by reliable media publications. Otherwise NO.
(If Inauguration Day changes for any reason, that will not affect the market - the deadline is Dec 31 regardless.)
Background:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/01/americas/bolsonaro-brazil-elections-protests-intl-latam "Brazil’s Bolsonaro signals cooperation with transfer of power, but does not concede election defeat"
Shorter-dated question:
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I cannot find any news reporting that Bolsonaro conceded. (The resolution criteria say "as reported by reliable media publications")
If anyone can find a source saying he conceded, please link it. If you can find other evidence that it shouldn't resolve NO yet, also let me know. Otherwise will resolve NO in a couple days.
The reporting I did find indicates that he didn't concede, although it isn't 100% clear-cut - for example, this article only says he didn't concede in October: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/01/world/americas/bolsonaro-florida-brazil.html
Yesterday he did a live but news outlets are saying he didn't concede that Lula won https://veja.abril.com.br/politica/bolsonaro-nao-reconhece-derrota-e-sai-do-poder-pela-porta-dos-fundos/ . But some people in Twitter are saying he has concede
