context

The legal situations of both Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro are under scrutiny. Trump has been accused multiple times but is unlikely to be imprisoned. Bolsonaro has a high likelihood of imprisonment.

resolution criteria

The market resolves in favor of "Yes" if Jair Bolsonaro is criminally convicted before Donald Trump. It resolves in favor of "No" if Donald Trump is criminally convicted before Jair Bolsonaro.

sources

https://www.metropoles.com/blog-do-noblat/ricardo-noblat/trump-vira-reu-pela-quarta-vez-bolsonaro-espera-ser-preso

Trump vira réu pela quarta vez. Bolsonaro espera ser preso

Um tem chances de se eleger presidente pela segunda vez. O outro, de ser banido da política