Will Bolsonaro be declared ineligible for the 2030 general elections?

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has recently been declared ineligible for elective offices by the country's electoral authority. Bolsonaro was charged of misuse of powers in the period before the 2022 general elections, when he seeked reelection.

Due to legislation and electoral calendar particulars, the sentence would allow Bolsonaro to run again in 2030, aged 75, thus staying away from three elections until then (one of them being the 2026 presidential run). However, some unfoldings of the case in other courts could make Bolsonaro ineligible also for the 2030 general elections.

This market resolves YES if any such decision by a collegiate judicial ou audit court takes place, banning Bolsonaro also from the 2030 elections - even if further appeals are still possible. It resolves NO otherwise.

Get Ṁ600 play money