Add your predictions!
Based on my prediction that Google I/O will be mostly about AI again this year, this market intentionally mirrors the OpenAI event happening today Monday, so will strive to also mirror the resolution criteria.
14 May clarification:
Resolved based on Keynote only
In general, resolution will err towards resolving things YES in ambiguous situations. If it seems like something might count according to the spirit of the answer but the letter is unclear, it will probably count. If the event is postponed, this market will be extended until the event occurs.
Submission Guidelines:
Be clear when a submission is about someone saying exact words and use quotation marks around those words to indicate this.
Submit answers that might or might not happen, nothing too likely or unlikely.
Make your answer submissions as clear and descriptive as possible.
Please do not submit subjective answers, everyone should agree if an option resolves yes or no regardless of their values.
Please do not submit options that require counting multiple instances of something occurring, or anything else that is difficult to keep track of.
Please don't submit significantly more answers than anyone else.
I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for quality control reasons.
Submitted options may be edited to make the resolution criteria more objective.
Moderators are also welcome to edit options for clarity, N/A low quality options, and to resolve options as the event airs.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ216 | |
| 2 | Ṁ64 | |
| 3 | Ṁ23 | |
| 4 | Ṁ19 | |
| 5 | Ṁ17 |
In the sample of articles and podcasts I reviewed, I'd describe the journalistic response to Google I/O as vaguely positive. The reaction was not "mixed", nor was it precisely negative. Nevertheless, I resolved to 30% rather than to a straight NO because of this nagging sense that those journalists who were being frank were underwhelmed, which is a little more negative a response than I felt comfortable ignoring. The commentator consensus: OpenAI continues to be better at influencing public opinion, even though no one had contributed more to the space of AI than Google, and indeed no one is better positioned in the race for useful AI (or AGI for that matter) than Google.
Thanks @traders while we wait for the media to weigh in, what do you expect this event will do to the stock price?
I’ll give this a until Monday to get through a news cycle.
@Jx I pondered whether the language work in India could count, but they didn’t connect it with Google Translate explicitly.
@Predictor Seems like Archibald interprets that option to mean they're demo'ing the hardware, rather than gemini on whatever phone is the latest.
@Predictor would you agree this was a demo of Gemini, not a demo of the Pixel 8a, which was released a week ago?
@Jx He said below that he interprets it as needing to be a demo of hardware, rather than a demo of software that happens to be running on some hardware that is on stage.
@ChrisPrichard So that was a demo of Gemini, rather than a demo of Pixel 8a, in this interpretation.
@Jx Ah just saw this! Sorry! Your pronoun assumption is confusing. I’d happily have been part of this discussion, but I didn’t know you were talking about me :).
@Predictor Appreciate the feedback with the ⭐️ rating 😂. I read back through my real time comments here and definitely stand by my resolution.
My interpretation is that they never demoed the Pixel 8a, which came out a week ago. They demoed Gemini using the Pixel, and at one point highlighted that it was the 8a. I did not bet in this market and always aim for what I suspect the (sometimes silent) majority perspective is.
@Jx @ChrisPrichard if you feel strongly, let me know and I’ll create a poll / petition to re-resolve if it turns out I was wrong.
@HenriThunberg (to be clear, the 1-star rating didn't come from me!!)
Yeah - I'm with Henri here; it wasn't my original interpretation of what that option meant, but you were quick to clarify and it was a pretty reasonable description of what people might have thought the option meant.
In fact, I prefer your style here of keeping more to the "spirit" of what the options meant. I've been annoyed in the past by silly edge-cases resolving things in strange ways based on a very strict wording interpretation of an option.
@Predictor I don't think so. This was a demo of search, made clear by the video showing the layers of cloud processing, not a demo of a tangible device.
@Predictor for this to resolve YES, I'm inclined to say we need to see a clear demo of hardware, not just software.