[ short fuse ] Google I/O Keynote Prop Bets [May 14 10 AM PT]
31
1kṀ4711
resolved May 20
Resolved
YES
Sundar Pichai is on the livestream
Resolved
YES
AGI/ASI mentioned
Resolved
YES
The word "Microsoft" is said
Resolved
YES
The phrase "real time" is used
Resolved
YES
Demos new AI assistant
Resolved
30%
In the market creator's opinion, the average reaction to the event by journalists is "mixed" or negative
Resolved
NO
Google Translate enhancements are shown
Resolved
NO
A tangible product/device is demonstrated
Resolved
NO
"Regulation" is mentioned, in a legal/policy context
Resolved
NO
Demos new feature for Google Maps
Resolved
NO
Someone from another (not Google) company joins on stage
Resolved
NO
OpenAI is mentioned
Resolved
NO
a live demo goes wrong

Add your predictions!

Based on my prediction that Google I/O will be mostly about AI again this year, this market intentionally mirrors the OpenAI event happening today Monday, so will strive to also mirror the resolution criteria.

14 May clarification:

Resolved based on Keynote only


In general, resolution will err towards resolving things YES in ambiguous situations. If it seems like something might count according to the spirit of the answer but the letter is unclear, it will probably count. If the event is postponed, this market will be extended until the event occurs.

Submission Guidelines:

  • Be clear when a submission is about someone saying exact words and use quotation marks around those words to indicate this.

  • Submit answers that might or might not happen, nothing too likely or unlikely.

  • Make your answer submissions as clear and descriptive as possible.

  • Please do not submit subjective answers, everyone should agree if an option resolves yes or no regardless of their values.

  • Please do not submit options that require counting multiple instances of something occurring, or anything else that is difficult to keep track of.

  • Please don't submit significantly more answers than anyone else.

  • I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for quality control reasons.

  • Submitted options may be edited to make the resolution criteria more objective.


    Moderators are also welcome to edit options for clarity, N/A low quality options, and to resolve options as the event airs.

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