[ short fuse ] Google I/O Keynote Prop Bets [May 14 10 AM PT]
Mini
31
แน€4.7k
resolved May 20
Resolved
YES
Sundar Pichai is on the livestream
Resolved
YES
AGI/ASI mentioned
Resolved
YES
The word "Microsoft" is said
Resolved
YES
The phrase "real time" is used
Resolved
YES
Demos new AI assistant
Resolved
30%
In the market creator's opinion, the average reaction to the event by journalists is "mixed" or negative
Resolved
NO
Google Translate enhancements are shown
Resolved
NO
A tangible product/device is demonstrated
Resolved
NO
"Regulation" is mentioned, in a legal/policy context
Resolved
NO
Demos new feature for Google Maps
Resolved
NO
Someone from another (not Google) company joins on stage
Resolved
NO
OpenAI is mentioned
Resolved
NO
a live demo goes wrong

Add your predictions!

Based on my prediction that Google I/O will be mostly about AI again this year, this market intentionally mirrors the OpenAI event happening today Monday, so will strive to also mirror the resolution criteria.

14 May clarification:

Resolved based on Keynote only


In general, resolution will err towards resolving things YES in ambiguous situations. If it seems like something might count according to the spirit of the answer but the letter is unclear, it will probably count. If the event is postponed, this market will be extended until the event occurs.

Submission Guidelines:

  • Be clear when a submission is about someone saying exact words and use quotation marks around those words to indicate this.

  • Submit answers that might or might not happen, nothing too likely or unlikely.

  • Make your answer submissions as clear and descriptive as possible.

  • Please do not submit subjective answers, everyone should agree if an option resolves yes or no regardless of their values.

  • Please do not submit options that require counting multiple instances of something occurring, or anything else that is difficult to keep track of.

  • Please don't submit significantly more answers than anyone else.

  • I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for quality control reasons.

  • Submitted options may be edited to make the resolution criteria more objective.


    Moderators are also welcome to edit options for clarity, N/A low quality options, and to resolve options as the event airs.

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In the market creator's opinion, the average reaction to the event by journalists is "mixed" or negative

In the sample of articles and podcasts I reviewed, I'd describe the journalistic response to Google I/O as vaguely positive. The reaction was not "mixed", nor was it precisely negative. Nevertheless, I resolved to 30% rather than to a straight NO because of this nagging sense that those journalists who were being frank were underwhelmed, which is a little more negative a response than I felt comfortable ignoring. The commentator consensus: OpenAI continues to be better at influencing public opinion, even though no one had contributed more to the space of AI than Google, and indeed no one is better positioned in the race for useful AI (or AGI for that matter) than Google.

Thanks @traders while we wait for the media to weigh in, what do you expect this event will do to the stock price?

In the market creator's opinion, the average reaction to the event by journalists is "mixed" or negative

Iโ€™ll give this a until Monday to get through a news cycle.

Google Translate enhancements are shown

don't think i saw any

@Jx I pondered whether the language work in India could count, but they didnโ€™t connect it with Google Translate explicitly.

A tangible product/device is demonstrated

New product Pixel 8a is being demoed

bought แน€5 A tangible product/d... NO

@Predictor Seems like Archibald interprets that option to mean they're demo'ing the hardware, rather than gemini on whatever phone is the latest.

@Predictor would you agree this was a demo of Gemini, not a demo of the Pixel 8a, which was released a week ago?

@BlueDragon seems like Gemini on Pixel 8a should count, right?

bought แน€5 In the market creato... NO

@Jx He said below that he interprets it as needing to be a demo of hardware, rather than a demo of software that happens to be running on some hardware that is on stage.

@ChrisPrichard So that was a demo of Gemini, rather than a demo of Pixel 8a, in this interpretation.

@ChrisPrichard oh! i didn't see that - and i interpreted "product" as hardware or software

@Jx That was my initial interpretation, too, and was surprised by his clarification!

@ChrisPrichard yeah same

@Jx Ah just saw this! Sorry! Your pronoun assumption is confusing. Iโ€™d happily have been part of this discussion, but I didnโ€™t know you were talking about me :).

@Predictor Appreciate the feedback with the โญ๏ธ rating ๐Ÿ˜‚. I read back through my real time comments here and definitely stand by my resolution.

My interpretation is that they never demoed the Pixel 8a, which came out a week ago. They demoed Gemini using the Pixel, and at one point highlighted that it was the 8a. I did not bet in this market and always aim for what I suspect the (sometimes silent) majority perspective is.

@Jx @ChrisPrichard if you feel strongly, let me know and Iโ€™ll create a poll / petition to re-resolve if it turns out I was wrong.

@BlueDragon sorry for the 1-star rating โ€“ I felt your interpretation was fair.

@HenriThunberg (to be clear, the 1-star rating didn't come from me!!)

Yeah - I'm with Henri here; it wasn't my original interpretation of what that option meant, but you were quick to clarify and it was a pretty reasonable description of what people might have thought the option meant.

In fact, I prefer your style here of keeping more to the "spirit" of what the options meant. I've been annoyed in the past by silly edge-cases resolving things in strange ways based on a very strict wording interpretation of an option.

Search demo by scanning a record player is not a tangible product demo, by my reckoning. This does not resolve yes

bought แน€10 A tangible product/d... NO

@BlueDragon Well nevermind!

A tangible product/device is demonstrated
bought แน€50 A tangible product/d... YES

Gemini phone video demo resolves it yes

sold แน€4 A tangible product/d... NO

@Predictor Yeah - that sounds right

@Predictor I don't think so. This was a demo of search, made clear by the video showing the layers of cloud processing, not a demo of a tangible device.

@Predictor for this to resolve YES, I'm inclined to say we need to see a clear demo of hardware, not just software.

@BlueDragon interesting interpretation - had i seen it earlier, i would have bet differently

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