Bolsonaro status before 2024 elections
15
302
1k
Aug 16
2%
Free on Brazilian soil, no warrant issued, elegible
47%
Free on Brazilian soil, no warrant issued, inelegible
1.2%
Free on Brazilian soil, warrant issued but not fulfilled, elegible
1.6%
Free on Brazilian soil, warrant issued but not fulfilled, inelegible
0.9%
Free on Brazilian soil after some kind of arrest, elegible
13%
Free on Brazilian soil after some kind of arrest, inelegible
3%
Warrant issued, sheltered in a foreign embassy, any eligibility status
5%
Warrant issued, fled Brazil, any eligibility status
23%
Serving jail time or house-arrest, any eligibility status
2%
Dead for any reason, other conditions unimportant
2%
Other, unlisted combination (please comment)

This market tries to aggregate multiple other markets on Bolsonaro's legal status in the next few years, namely:

  • Will any arrest warrant be issued against him?

  • If so, will such a warrant be fulfilled?

    • If so, will he leave prision/house-arrest before the 2024 Elections?

    • If not, will that be because he has fled the country or sought asylum in some way?

  • Will he be eligible for elective positions?

The reference date for resolving this market is the September 29th, 2024 - one week before the planned date for 2024 Elections, and when most arrests become prohibited by electoral law. It will close by mid August 2024 (probably by the start of the political campaign), though, to desincentivize last minute bets.

I will count both temporary arrests and house-arrests as serving jail time, with no distinction on how much time was served. I will however provide answers distinguishing his status precisely on the Sep. 29th, 2024.

As of his eligibility status, I will consider the current Superior Electoral Court decision deeming Bolsonaro ineligible, unless it has been overruled by any court with de facto power for that.

Hopefully the answers are mutually exclusive and collectively exaustive, but I have provided an "Other combination" option for not antecipated outcomes. Be kind and comment your hypothesis if you buy that.

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I have also created a market for Braga Netto:

bought Ṁ10 Free on Brazilian so... YES

semi-related market

Things worth noting:

- the 2024 elections are for mayors and city councils only.
- diplomatic asylum (hosting people in embassies) are a Latin American custom, and most Latin American countries, if Bolsonaro entered their embassies, would rather give him the Khashoggi treatment than the Assange one.

bought Ṁ7 of Free on Brazilian so... NO

Creators of related markets, feel free to link them in the comments - there are too many of them

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