This market resolves YES, since I have already seen plenty of examples of the collusion to satisfy whatever criteria I'd likely write.
This is a place where you can post examples of the collusion.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ44 | |
| 2 | Ṁ11 | |
| 3 | Ṁ9 | |
| 4 | Ṁ6 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
@levifinkelstein "This market resolves YES" by itself isn't really bonus farming. The bonus farming typically looks like "This market resolves YES, max M$10 bet per trader".
"This market resolves YES on X date" is a standard question to observe discount rates. The purpose of the market is also clear: "This is a place where you can post examples of the collusion."
@levifinkelstein If you are reformed, why don't you just admit you colluded with HMYS on the chess market and others. We all know it happened.
Quoting a section from my "Evidence on Is Levi HMYS" doc:
This might not be as relevant to the original Is Levi HMYS? market as the rest of the evidence, but I want to communicate my disapproving position clearly: Levi & HMYS accounts conducted gross profit manipulations in the past, as recently as July 1st, when the Season 1 of Leagues was finalizing.
@levifinkelstein sent at least Ṁ10k to @LEVI_BOT_1 using manalinks (Ṁ5k on 2023-05-29 10:50 UTC and Ṁ5k on 2023-06-01 13:18 UTC), and "lost" it to @hmys in a Will I beat @HMYS in our planned chess game tomorrow? market, and in a similar market on 2023-06-01 06:13 UTC and 2023-06-01 17:10 UTC), thus, artificially lowering the displayed profit of the bot by Ṁ10,753, and artificially increasing displayed profit of @hmys, right before leagues finalized.
Other markets that were either resolved or violently bet at around May 31st:
Is love the most important thing in the universe? - resolved against the publics sentiment, HMYS profited Ṁ1436.
Will @n99m rejoin our groupchat by the end of august? - pumped from 37% to 80% before Leagues finalized, Levi & HMYS held around Ṁ20,000 YES shares.
Will I go on a date with a cute nerdy guy in 2023? - pumped from 24% to 99% before Leagues finalized, resolved against the publics sentiment, Levi profited Ṁ4219.
As a result of those manipulations Levi & HMYS got additional Ṁ3100 in League prizes, additional Ṁ6598 of profit in hmys/Will I promote to diamond this season?.
The fact that those manipulations were planned ahead and executed with this much swiftness and coordination between at least 3 Manifold accounts favors Hypothesis YES over NO.
I didn’t dig much, I only took the recent markets that were on the surface. Perhaps, the curious reader might find even more markets like that, some of which are now unlisted, but still accessible through comments.
@xyz Sorry, if Levi says is "doxxing", I don't feel that it's ethically correct for me to share it. @firstuserhere and @Conflux saw it, and that's all that matters.
@MayMeta That's understandable. Do you remember what books were on their Goodreads, or was it still private then?
@xyz you're too late to the party bro, trying evidence like this is explained by best-friend theory
@levifinkelstein I'm genuinely curious what books you read. I've made up my mind already on what happened.
Examples of collusion as well as other manipulations - other people have written more detailed analysis of what exactly went down in these, some of it is in the comments of these markets.
https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/is-love-the-most-important-thing-in
https://manifold.markets/hmys/will-n99m-rejoin-our-groupchat-by-t
https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-i-go-on-a-date-with-a-cute-ner#OzhOz43Arx3Gt2Wx7lWs
https://manifold.markets/LEVI_BOT_1/will-i-beat-hmys-in-our-planned-che
https://manifold.markets/hmys/will-i-promote-to-diamond-this-seas
@jack
1. We just decided to not invite n99m back to the group chat, that's why we were so confident betting NO.
2. I genuinely did go on a date with a cute nerdy guy, and posted images as I promise, nothing else was promised. If people don't think it's good enough they shouldn't have better.
3. I do think love is the most important, and HMYS was confident betting YES since he's a close friend and knows me very well.
@jack You don't know the story behind the chess game, I like how I have to present oceans of evidence for people to believe anything, but you're gonna claim it was definitely collusion with super high certainty with little evidence, without even considering alternative explanations...
@levifinkelstein There was plenty of evidence posted about that in a discord discussion. @MayMeta want to chime in?
1. We just decided to not invite n99m back to the group chat, that's why we were so confident betting NO.
Oh really, you were both confident betting NO, but how come you gifted HMYS M$5k buying YES filling their 90% order?
@levifinkelstein both of you resolved and/or sniped all of those markets precisely at the end of the season, the chess match just before midnight and the others on June 1 during the randomized season closing. Obviously manufacturing those profits at the right time with the goal of manipulating the standings and promotions, and related markets. You can’t seriously claim with a straight face those M$15k-20k timely profits were just a happy coincidence, all falling within a few hours. You were even bragging about it in comments of one of those markets.
@deagol There's a million reasons for placing the limit order, everyone instantly assumes collusion. There's little point in my trying to explain what happened since you'll require infinite evidence to prove it before anyone will believe, just like what's happening in the is Levi HMYS market.
@levifinkelstein lol you just lied about “we were both buying NO” I give you public undeniable factual evidence where you gifted them 5k and now you play victim 😂
@levifinkelstein look man I got nothing against you, I readily admit those were sick plays last season, you got me good on the promotion market, just a few hundred mana, I’m fine with it. It was shady as hell but ok, nothing others haven’t done before. But you got others for much more, on many more markets, and they all have good reason to call you out on it. And you did bring this on yourself, you know you were seeking this, for whatever reason, you played up and seemed to enjoy this ruthless manipulator reputation, well, you got it alright, now gotta live with it, its consequences. I’m not attacking you personally, just trying to help put in place some consistent, sensible rules which let everyone use the platform safely.
I’m sure you want something similar, so I’d ask that you put to good use what you have learned here, all the weaknesses you’ve identified, and try to help the manifold team get their act together. Just stop pretending, none are buying it. Hope you can clean up that reputation and are able to get right back to enjoying the site.