@n99m left a group chat I am in because a certain member ( @levifinkelstein ) sent too many videos of a guy called frank hassle (at least that was the instigating event). Will he rejoin the groupchat by the end of august (see close date)?
Resolves to yes if at any time he ( @n99m ) rejoins our group chat before august 31 is over.
Note that @levifinkelstein is temporarily banned from commenting and if you want clarifications, or have questions, please contact him on discord.
Others have pointed it out already but it bears repeating to save some newbies from wasting their mana:
@hmys has invested 70% of his total net worth in NO-position. @levifinkelstein invested 50% of their net worth in NO-positions. No way they would be this confident in a NO-resolution, if there wasn't some secret information they are hiding. This market is bait.
@Agh It's not bait, and it's not secret. He can't join the server if we don't invite him. I've expressed surprise many times in this market's comment section at people buying YES in this market.
let's just say theres an x% chance of n99m rejoining the group chat. Then there's a 100-x% chance of n99m not rejoining the group chat. Then the probability is x% yes + (100-x)% no (real math). And (100-x)% no is the same thing as x% yes, so in reality the probability of n99m joining the group chat is x% yes + x% yes = (2x)%. Applying this same logic, the market is going to resolve to a number > -15.
Can I make a market about someone calling me and then block their number and smash my phone?
Can I make a market about someone visiting me and then burn my house down and leave the country?
If I create a market about my personal life is it ok for me to at any moment change the purpose of the market if it can benefit me?
When you make a market where you have 100% control of the resolution are you not expected to act in good faith?
When I first bet on this market I did it because it seemed incredibly dumb of them to go this hard when all it should take according to the spirit of the market (per the creators own words) is @n99m knowing about it and wanting free mana.
After @n99m started betting YES I can't think of a likely scenario where this market is not deceitful in general and also tricked everyone who initially bet on it at face value. You're either all colluding or you're not letting him/going to let him join.
Maybe I'm wrong and it's actually fine to transform your market in to a tool for league boosting and then cry about people trolling you when they bet in a way that messes that up for you.
@UFTG "Can I make a market about someone calling me and then block their number and smash my phone?
Can I make a market about someone visiting me and then burn my house down and leave the country?"
Yes.
@BTE come on, put in some more mana bro. Can't you just sell out on some other markets?
@levifinkelstein If it isnโt even active, making it impossible for n99m to rejoin, that is market manipulation and should have serious consequences. I think there should be proof itโs active.
@BTE I use it basically every day, don't worry. Although I don't really see how that's relevant. Pretty sure it wouldn't be market manipulation in any interesting sense if the server wasn't being used.
@levifinkelstein Interesting that you call it a server! This market is about a โgroup chatโ
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@Gen yeah, it's technically a discord server. Regardless there's logs of the Frank Hassle ordeal taking place, with him leaving right after, all matching up with the timeline of this market.
@levifinkelstein That is irrelevant. You should invite @Gen and he can verify itโs legit.
@BTE Verify that what is legit? I don't understand exactly what your worry is, do you mind explaining a little bit more?