Will @n99m rejoin our groupchat by the end of august?
59
1.1kṀ180k
resolved Aug 6
Resolved
N/A

@n99m left a group chat I am in because a certain member ( @levifinkelstein ) sent too many videos of a guy called frank hassle (at least that was the instigating event). Will he rejoin the groupchat by the end of august (see close date)?

Resolves to yes if at any time he ( @n99m ) rejoins our group chat before august 31 is over.

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N/A'ing this market as it was only created to defraud users.

predictedYES

@DavidChee noooo my realized profit

Note that @levifinkelstein is temporarily banned from commenting and if you want clarifications, or have questions, please contact him on discord.

Others have pointed it out already but it bears repeating to save some newbies from wasting their mana:

@hmys has invested 70% of his total net worth in NO-position. @levifinkelstein invested 50% of their net worth in NO-positions. No way they would be this confident in a NO-resolution, if there wasn't some secret information they are hiding. This market is bait.

predictedNO

@Agh It's not bait, and it's not secret. He can't join the server if we don't invite him. I've expressed surprise many times in this market's comment section at people buying YES in this market.

predictedNO

@Agh Did you read the comments?

predictedNO

@Agh

Please stop spreading misinformation

@n99m i certainly hope you do

predictedNO

@BTE come on man, put in some more mana

predictedNO

@BTE stop wasting your mana in other markets

predictedNO

@n99m buy more. i have limit orders

predictedYES

@hmys sus

let's just say theres an x% chance of n99m rejoining the group chat. Then there's a 100-x% chance of n99m not rejoining the group chat. Then the probability is x% yes + (100-x)% no (real math). And (100-x)% no is the same thing as x% yes, so in reality the probability of n99m joining the group chat is x% yes + x% yes = (2x)%. Applying this same logic, the market is going to resolve to a number > -15.

predictedYES

It’s time for a “Is @n99m and @hmys the same person” market.

predictedYES

Can I make a market about someone calling me and then block their number and smash my phone?

Can I make a market about someone visiting me and then burn my house down and leave the country?

If I create a market about my personal life is it ok for me to at any moment change the purpose of the market if it can benefit me?

When you make a market where you have 100% control of the resolution are you not expected to act in good faith?

When I first bet on this market I did it because it seemed incredibly dumb of them to go this hard when all it should take according to the spirit of the market (per the creators own words) is @n99m knowing about it and wanting free mana.

After @n99m started betting YES I can't think of a likely scenario where this market is not deceitful in general and also tricked everyone who initially bet on it at face value. You're either all colluding or you're not letting him/going to let him join.

Maybe I'm wrong and it's actually fine to transform your market in to a tool for league boosting and then cry about people trolling you when they bet in a way that messes that up for you.

predictedNO

@UFTG This is not the first time this has happened with HMYS and Levi.

predictedNO

@UFTG "Can I make a market about someone calling me and then block their number and smash my phone?

Can I make a market about someone visiting me and then burn my house down and leave the country?"

Yes.

predictedYES

@UFTG Why don’t you sell your shares so I can buy cheaper no’s?

predictedNO

Time to invite him @n99m finally? 🤔 There are some nice limit orders up....

I'm not touching this market with a 10 foot pole

predictedNO

@MarcusAbramovitch you just need high enough IQ to predict the resolution

unfortunately mine is quite low

predictedNO

@BTE come on, put in some more mana bro. Can't you just sell out on some other markets?

predictedYES

@levifinkelstein I am so intrigued now I want to join the server.

predictedYES

@levifinkelstein How do I get an invite?

predictedNO

@BTE someone has to give you one

predictedYES

@levifinkelstein Thanks Capt Obvious!

predictedYES

@levifinkelstein How do we know the server is even active if only you are on it?

predictedYES

@levifinkelstein If it isn’t even active, making it impossible for n99m to rejoin, that is market manipulation and should have serious consequences. I think there should be proof it’s active.

predictedNO

@BTE I use it basically every day, don't worry. Although I don't really see how that's relevant. Pretty sure it wouldn't be market manipulation in any interesting sense if the server wasn't being used.

predictedYES

@levifinkelstein Interesting that you call it a server! This market is about a “group chat”

🤨🤨🤨

predictedNO

@Gen yeah, it's technically a discord server. Regardless there's logs of the Frank Hassle ordeal taking place, with him leaving right after, all matching up with the timeline of this market.

predictedYES

@levifinkelstein invite n99m to prove it (he is my chosen representative)

predictedYES

@levifinkelstein That is irrelevant. You should invite @Gen and he can verify it’s legit.

predictedNO

@BTE Verify that what is legit? I don't understand exactly what your worry is, do you mind explaining a little bit more?

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