🏅 Top traders

@hmys exactly Ṁ200 in profits, my sense of number roundness is impeccable

@hmys Nice work. That’s a tough group. I won mine and I would have been fourth in yours.

@BTE when does the next season start?

@42irrationalist I was just about to ask the same question! 😂

@hmys you can just resolve N/A as it is a violation.

@PseudonymousAlt (that's the creator)

@PseudonymousAlt Why do you think it is a violation?

@Stralor collusion - alt usage.

@PseudonymousAlt I don't believe I have done this.

@hmys beliefs are flexible

@deagol Exactly why I think I should resolve this N/A.

• Alts used for the following will be met with punishment, regardless of if you are abiding by the rules outlined above:

  • …

  • Leveraging balances of multiple accounts to boost an account up the profit leaderboard.

    • Holding positions which are then traded off to another account

    • Making trades with multiple accounts on the same market to manipulate the price/odds an account can buy in for.

    • Any other action that could benefit the profit of an account that involves a second.

Collusion, to me, amounts to the same as trading with your alt. And a couple declared alts involved here did trade in same markets, can’t say how pervasive as I only checked a few.

• A fraudulently resolved market is not merely an incorrectly resolved market, but one designed to benefit the market creator (or associated users) by intentionally tricking or deceiving users.

• Manifold also reserves the right to intervene in any market that is part of an official Manifold-hosted tournament or event and correct any misresolutions.

Closing early and without cause or notice, but also blatantly immediatly after sniping, amounts to the same as a fraudulent resolution as described above.

@deagol 100% agreement. @DavidChee

@deagol For the accusations of using alts or manipulating profits, I haven't done any of this. For the thing about me closing the market early, I don't think I did anything against the rules, but I understand why some people could interpret it as being malicious or suspicious, which is why I choose to reopen the market.

@hmys You reopened it long after the other market got you a guaranteed promotion. This is sketchy as fuck.

@BTE This was deliberate fraud. Every single person in this league can confirm

@hmys At the very least you and Levi are colluding to manipulate the standings.

@BTE you are saying "colluding to manipulate the standings" like it's a bad thing

@BTE I don't see how that should matter or how it is sketchy? I don't gain anything by it being closed for a while.

@hmys That is not true. We don’t know when the season will actually end. It could have ended anytime today.

Types of markets subject to delisting

…

Markets with acceptable content which we nonetheless don’t want on the front page for one of the following reasons:

…

• Markets only about their own activity.

  • e.g. “Will this market get more up-votes than down-votes?”

…

Non-predictive markets.

These are all self-referential, but it’s now leaking into other unrelated, serious markets, making them all part of the whaling game, and whose traders and authors will become quite confused and very annoyed.

Seems to me this is too high (probably being gamed): /IsaacKing/will-manifold-be-significantly-less

@BTE I don't think that makes sense. I had enough profit to safely be in the top 5 during the period the market was closed, even without the profits I had from this market at the time. I didn't/don't gain anything from having it be temporarily closed.

@hmys all your profits were cheats as I documented and can be verified by anyone looking at your profit chart

@hmys I recall looking at your league and seeing it differently but I might be wrong for sure. And tbh I think it should have closed last night, at least that’s what I would have done. May is over.

@deagol I'm not sheldon finch

@levifinkelstein idk if manifold admins have a way of verifying this, perhaps buy looking at ip/email? idk. but I promise it's not me. HMYS is also not me (although he's my friend)

profits

Ooh wow poor Levi got taken to the cleaners, almost exactly the same amount going to said author, surely it's pure trading skills! And all happened this morning naturally, after the market was a desert for a month. What a coincidence! 🤔

https://manifold.markets/hmys/will-n99m-rejoin-our-groupchat-by-t?r=ZGVhZ29s

Will @n99m rejoin our groupchat by the end of august?

3% chance. @n99m left a group chat I am in because a certain member ( @levifinkelstein ) sent too many videos of a guy called frank hassle (at least that was the instigating event). Will he rejoin the groupchat by the end of august (see close date)? Resolves to yes if at any time he ( @n99m ) rejo…

@BTE They own >7k Mana shares here, so when the market here was at 20%, they weren't even close. They bought it to ~80% and locked the market so that their profit is secured at M2,207 and nobody can force it down.

If they really wanted to prevent manipulation/wrongdoing, they would just N/A the market. The intention is clear and it was always intended as a method to transfer mana between friends/accounts or outright manipulate the public to pump their profits for the finish.

Pretty interesting approach. A lot of people making bad bets to win leagues are going to have a tough time in June - it'll be a competition to get demoted instead

@BTE This market is recursively related to profits of 5 and 6 positions.

Upping the percentage here increases profits for HMYS (at 6) and decreases profits for @deagol (at 5).

So upping it and locking the market (at an obviously incoherent 85%) ahead of the intended close time at false claims is a very uncool move.

@Gen Interesting. So was Levina a collaborator or something?

@BTE I fully expect Levina and HMYS to be either long term friends or literally the same person. Almost identical betting behaviour and almost always participating in markets one after the other. Lots of mana exchanges.

99% they spoke & are collaborating here, can't be sure though.

I'm not too worried about the leagues manipulation cause ultimately anyone boosted for May will struggle in June. It should even out over time and people will learn that end of month there is plenty of juice to squeeze out of people trying to win their league

@Gen I support your claim, please refer to my comment:

https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-i-go-on-a-date-with-a-cute-ner#OzhOz43Arx3Gt2Wx7lWs

@Gen idk, Levina far outperformed HMYS this season in the most difficult cohort.

@BTE 1% of 100000 is more than 1% of 10000

@PseudonymousAlt just having more mana leads to more ez profit

@PseudonymousAlt It can also lead to HUGE losses, but I hear you.

@hmys that statement would be far more believable had you not bought it up 50%, immediately prior to closing it.

@DavidChee

@deagol bought it up just enough to promote to diamond and make it resolve yes. I call shenanigans

@Fedor self-fulling market 😂

I mean there's still much that could demote him though, it's not over yet!

@hmys Do you confirm that you will not reopen the market under any circumstances?

@hmys this is uncool

Meh, a reason to buy https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/levina-stock down I guess

@deagol Yes, including profit from markets that have resolution date far in the future makes it very vulnerable to speculation. Moving the market by few percent can create huge profits.

@Irigi Every single market on the site is game.

@levifinkelstein i can help you, let's play together, i'll turn you from Levina into leWina

@42irrationalist that's sounds nice, let's do it, if @hmys agrees

@levifinkelstein why isn’t it counting for the league?

@deagol it is, it's just not updated yet :)

@levifinkelstein That resolved more than 6h ago, while still the ranks and league profits keep changing for much more recent activity, updating as I trade as well as by others' actions, but not those profits, nor these.

@deagol yeah, I said it was fine if the mods discounted it from the league calculation, dik if that's why