1
Will I promote to diamond this season?
40
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
YES

I am currently number 8 in bayesed basillisks platinum league. Will I be top 5 and consequently promote to Diamond by the end of this season?

Edit: Currently 10th place

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ3,305
2Ṁ2,293
3Ṁ587
4Ṁ200
5Ṁ166
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hmys avatar
HMYSpredicted YES

Resolved yes. Finished in 2nd place

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistsold Ṁ41 of YES

@hmys exactly Ṁ200 in profits, my sense of number roundness is impeccable

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted NO

@hmys Nice work. That’s a tough group. I won mine and I would have been fourth in yours.

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistpredicted YES

@BTE when does the next season start?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted NO

@42irrationalist I was just about to ask the same question! 😂

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistpredicted YES at 80%

y'all people commenting here need some jesus

hmys avatar
HMYSpredicted YES at 85%

I have reopened the market, since several people commented that they thought it was unfair that I closed it after having bought YES shares, thinking I did it to artificially increase my own profits.

PseudonymousAlt avatar
PseudonymousAltbought Ṁ100 of NO

@hmys you can just resolve N/A as it is a violation.

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴bought Ṁ10 of NO

@PseudonymousAlt (that's the creator)

hmys avatar
HMYSpredicted YES at 54%

@PseudonymousAlt Why do you think it is a violation?

PseudonymousAlt avatar
PseudonymousAltpredicted NO at 54%

@Stralor collusion - alt usage.

hmys avatar
HMYSpredicted YES at 54%

@PseudonymousAlt I don't believe I have done this.

PseudonymousAlt avatar
PseudonymousAltsold Ṁ80 of NO

@hmys beliefs are flexible

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted NO at 85%

going over the community guidelines

Users don’t maliciously take advantage of ambiguity, loopholes, and technicalities, at the cost of others. This is especially true if they are the market creator.

the unwarranted closing of this market, without notice and, oh just a coincidence, right after the author sniped it is blatantly malicious.

The collusion with other big whale accounts has now spilled over other normal, serious markets and it’s impacting many other users (who may or may not care about their leagues rank) right now wondering why we’ll really get wiped out by AI this decade, or who’s really Twitter’s CEO.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@deagol Exactly why I think I should resolve this N/A.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted NO at 54%
  • Alts used for the following will be met with punishment, regardless of if you are abiding by the rules outlined above:

    • Leveraging balances of multiple accounts to boost an account up the profit leaderboard.

      • Holding positions which are then traded off to another account

      • Making trades with multiple accounts on the same market to manipulate the price/odds an account can buy in for.

      • Any other action that could benefit the profit of an account that involves a second.

Collusion, to me, amounts to the same as trading with your alt. And a couple declared alts involved here did trade in same markets, can’t say how pervasive as I only checked a few.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted NO at 54%
  • A fraudulently resolved market is not merely an incorrectly resolved market, but one designed to benefit the market creator (or associated users) by intentionally tricking or deceiving users.

  • Manifold also reserves the right to intervene in any market that is part of an official Manifold-hosted tournament or event and correct any misresolutions.

Closing early and without cause or notice, but also blatantly immediatly after sniping, amounts to the same as a fraudulent resolution as described above.

PseudonymousAlt avatar
PseudonymousAlt

@deagol 100% agreement. @DavidChee

hmys avatar
HMYSpredicted YES at 54% (edited)

@deagol For the accusations of using alts or manipulating profits, I haven't done any of this. For the thing about me closing the market early, I don't think I did anything against the rules, but I understand why some people could interpret it as being malicious or suspicious, which is why I choose to reopen the market.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ2,000 of YES

@hmys You reopened it long after the other market got you a guaranteed promotion. This is sketchy as fuck.

PseudonymousAlt avatar
PseudonymousAlt

@BTE This was deliberate fraud. Every single person in this league can confirm

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted NO at 54%

@hmys At the very least you and Levi are colluding to manipulate the standings.

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistsold Ṁ40 of YES

@BTE you are saying "colluding to manipulate the standings" like it's a bad thing

hmys avatar
HMYSpredicted YES at 54%

@BTE I don't see how that should matter or how it is sketchy? I don't gain anything by it being closed for a while.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted NO at 80%

@hmys That is not true. We don’t know when the season will actually end. It could have ended anytime today.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted NO at 80%

Types of markets subject to delisting

Markets with acceptable content which we nonetheless don’t want on the front page for one of the following reasons:

  • Markets only about their own activity.

    • e.g. “Will this market get more up-votes than down-votes?”

Non-predictive markets.

These are all self-referential, but it’s now leaking into other unrelated, serious markets, making them all part of the whaling game, and whose traders and authors will become quite confused and very annoyed.

Seems to me this is too high (probably being gamed): /IsaacKing/will-manifold-be-significantly-less

hmys avatar
HMYSpredicted YES at 80%

@BTE I don't think that makes sense. I had enough profit to safely be in the top 5 during the period the market was closed, even without the profits I had from this market at the time. I didn't/don't gain anything from having it be temporarily closed.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted NO at 80%

@hmys all your profits were cheats as I documented and can be verified by anyone looking at your profit chart

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted NO at 80%

@hmys I recall looking at your league and seeing it differently but I might be wrong for sure. And tbh I think it should have closed last night, at least that’s what I would have done. May is over.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

I just realized that I have the ability to resolve this market. Should it be N/A’d???

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted NO at 85%

Who is @SheldonFinch joined just today (what a coincidence) for a bet on a date with Levina and kills it?

surely a coincidence that market got sniped and resolve today after being dormant for two months, well done Sheldon!

https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-i-go-on-a-date-with-a-cute-ner?r=ZGVhZ29s

Will I go on a date with a cute nerdy guy in 2023?
Will I go on a date with a cute nerdy guy in 2023?
96% chance. I don’t usually do that but I’m open for something new, will probably not say no if the opportunity arises. If I do it I will post picture proof with a note containing my username <3 UwU
levifinkelstein avatar
Levina Finkelstein ✅predicted YES at 85%

@deagol I'm not sheldon finch

levifinkelstein avatar
Levina Finkelstein ✅predicted YES at 85%

@levifinkelstein idk if manifold admins have a way of verifying this, perhaps buy looking at ip/email? idk. but I promise it's not me. HMYS is also not me (although he's my friend)

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted NO at 85% (edited)

Just two friends playing chess, how cute! what a shock for Levi who wins 9/10 to their friend lost this one. And it just happened to go down last night just before midnight Pacific, surely just coincidence.

https://manifold.markets/LEVI_BOT_1/will-i-beat-hmys-in-our-planned-che?r=ZGVhZ29s

Will I beat @HMYS in our planned chess game tomorrow?
Will I beat @HMYS in our planned chess game tomorrow?
Resolved NO.
deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted NO at 85%

Aww what a nice group of friends all playing together, I wonder how that market will resolve?? created by one of them (same author of this market) but more importantly who's gonna profit? 🤔

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted NO at 85%

profits

Ooh wow poor Levi got taken to the cleaners, almost exactly the same amount going to said author, surely it's pure trading skills! And all happened this morning naturally, after the market was a desert for a month. What a coincidence! 🤔

https://manifold.markets/hmys/will-n99m-rejoin-our-groupchat-by-t?r=ZGVhZ29s

Will @n99m rejoin our groupchat by the end of august?
Will @n99m rejoin our groupchat by the end of august?
3% chance. @n99m left a group chat I am in because a certain member ( @levifinkelstein ) sent too many videos of a guy called frank hassle (at least that was the instigating event). Will he rejoin the groupchat by the end of august (see close date)? Resolves to yes if at any time he ( @n99m ) rejo…
BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

First of all, you’re in 6th place M$7 behind 5th place. Second, I don’t understand the claims of manipulation. Can someone explain clearly??

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted NO at 85%

@BTE They own >7k Mana shares here, so when the market here was at 20%, they weren't even close. They bought it to ~80% and locked the market so that their profit is secured at M2,207 and nobody can force it down.

If they really wanted to prevent manipulation/wrongdoing, they would just N/A the market. The intention is clear and it was always intended as a method to transfer mana between friends/accounts or outright manipulate the public to pump their profits for the finish.

Pretty interesting approach. A lot of people making bad bets to win leagues are going to have a tough time in June - it'll be a competition to get demoted instead

NikitaSkovoroda avatar
Nikita Skovorodapredicted NO at 85%

@BTE This market is recursively related to profits of 5 and 6 positions.

Upping the percentage here increases profits for HMYS (at 6) and decreases profits for @deagol (at 5).

So upping it and locking the market (at an obviously incoherent 85%) ahead of the intended close time at false claims is a very uncool move.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@Gen Interesting. So was Levina a collaborator or something?

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted NO at 85%

@BTE I fully expect Levina and HMYS to be either long term friends or literally the same person. Almost identical betting behaviour and almost always participating in markets one after the other. Lots of mana exchanges.

99% they spoke & are collaborating here, can't be sure though.

I'm not too worried about the leagues manipulation cause ultimately anyone boosted for May will struggle in June. It should even out over time and people will learn that end of month there is plenty of juice to squeeze out of people trying to win their league

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@Gen idk, Levina far outperformed HMYS this season in the most difficult cohort.

PseudonymousAlt avatar
PseudonymousAlt

@BTE 1% of 100000 is more than 1% of 10000

PseudonymousAlt avatar
PseudonymousAlt

@PseudonymousAlt just having more mana leads to more ez profit

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@PseudonymousAlt It can also lead to HUGE losses, but I hear you.

levifinkelstein avatar
Levina Finkelstein ✅predicted YES at 85%

I made this stock so I can track public opinion about myself :) I love feedback

hmys avatar
HMYSbought Ṁ500 of YES

Many people were complaining that the market was encouraging market manipulation and other poor behavior. Therefore I've decided to close the market. It will be resolved once the league results are in.

RobertCousineau avatar
Robert Cousineaubought Ṁ0 of YES

@hmys that statement would be far more believable had you not bought it up 50%, immediately prior to closing it.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted NO at 85%
Fedor avatar
Fedorpredicted NO at 85%

@deagol bought it up just enough to promote to diamond and make it resolve yes. I call shenanigans

levifinkelstein avatar
Levina Finkelstein ✅predicted YES at 85%

@Fedor self-fulling market 😂

I mean there's still much that could demote him though, it's not over yet!

NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHard

@hmys Do you confirm that you will not reopen the market under any circumstances?

NikitaSkovoroda avatar
Nikita Skovorodapredicted NO at 85%

@hmys this is uncool

NikitaSkovoroda avatar
Nikita Skovorodapredicted NO at 85%
Fedor avatar
Fedorbought Ṁ80 of NO

Did @hmys just buy the market waay up and then close it early?

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellosold Ṁ74 of NO

This leagues game has devalued this whole site, every single market, into a self-resolving gamble. The Manifold team may enjoy more revenues, but this surely goes against the intention I joined and spend a significant amount of time here.

Administrators, please look into the betting patterns and schemes here and all similar “will I promote” markets, as well as all the spurious betting up or down in markets where the user whose league rank is getting propped or held back has a position.

@Austin @JamesGrugett @ian @SG @DavidChee

link

link

link

link

link

link

I’m sure there’s 10 times more like this.

Irigi avatar
Irigi

@deagol Yes, including profit from markets that have resolution date far in the future makes it very vulnerable to speculation. Moving the market by few percent can create huge profits.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted NO at 40%

@Irigi Every single market on the site is game.

levifinkelstein avatar
Levina Finkelstein ✅bought Ṁ100 of YES

@hmys do you wanna play another chess game? I wanna rewin my mana 👿

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistsold Ṁ0 of YES

@levifinkelstein i can help you, let's play together, i'll turn you from Levina into leWina

levifinkelstein avatar
Levina Finkelstein ✅bought Ṁ100 of YES

@42irrationalist that's sounds nice, let's do it, if @hmys agrees

levifinkelstein avatar
Levina Finkelstein ✅predicted YES at 32%

Just heads up that HMYS just had a 6k profit spike

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted NO at 43%

@levifinkelstein why isn’t it counting for the league?

levifinkelstein avatar
Levina Finkelstein ✅predicted YES at 43%

@deagol it is, it's just not updated yet :)

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted NO at 40% (edited)

@levifinkelstein That resolved more than 6h ago, while still the ranks and league profits keep changing for much more recent activity, updating as I trade as well as by others' actions, but not those profits, nor these.

levifinkelstein avatar
Levina Finkelstein ✅bought Ṁ0 of NO

@deagol yeah, I said it was fine if the mods discounted it from the league calculation, dik if that's why

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