I am currently number 8 in bayesed basillisks platinum league. Will I be top 5 and consequently promote to Diamond by the end of this season?
Edit: Currently 10th place
🏅 Top traders
Resolved yes. Finished in 2nd place
@hmys exactly Ṁ200 in profits, my sense of number roundness is impeccable
@hmys Nice work. That’s a tough group. I won mine and I would have been fourth in yours.
@BTE when does the next season start?
@42irrationalist I was just about to ask the same question! 😂
I have reopened the market, since several people commented that they thought it was unfair that I closed it after having bought YES shares, thinking I did it to artificially increase my own profits.
@hmys you can just resolve N/A as it is a violation.
@PseudonymousAlt (that's the creator)
@PseudonymousAlt Why do you think it is a violation?
@Stralor collusion - alt usage.
@PseudonymousAlt I don't believe I have done this.
@hmys beliefs are flexible
going over the community guidelines
Users don’t maliciously take advantage of ambiguity, loopholes, and technicalities, at the cost of others. This is especially true if they are the market creator.
the unwarranted closing of this market, without notice and, oh just a coincidence, right after the author sniped it is blatantly malicious.
The collusion with other big whale accounts has now spilled over other normal, serious markets and it’s impacting many other users (who may or may not care about their leagues rank) right now wondering why we’ll really get wiped out by AI this decade, or who’s really Twitter’s CEO.
@deagol Exactly why I think I should resolve this N/A.
Alts used for the following will be met with punishment, regardless of if you are abiding by the rules outlined above:
Leveraging balances of multiple accounts to boost an account up the profit leaderboard.
Holding positions which are then traded off to another account
Making trades with multiple accounts on the same market to manipulate the price/odds an account can buy in for.
Any other action that could benefit the profit of an account that involves a second.
Collusion, to me, amounts to the same as trading with your alt. And a couple declared alts involved here did trade in same markets, can’t say how pervasive as I only checked a few.
A fraudulently resolved market is not merely an incorrectly resolved market, but one designed to benefit the market creator (or associated users) by intentionally tricking or deceiving users.
Manifold also reserves the right to intervene in any market that is part of an official Manifold-hosted tournament or event and correct any misresolutions.
Closing early and without cause or notice, but also blatantly immediatly after sniping, amounts to the same as a fraudulent resolution as described above.
@deagol 100% agreement. @DavidChee
@deagol For the accusations of using alts or manipulating profits, I haven't done any of this. For the thing about me closing the market early, I don't think I did anything against the rules, but I understand why some people could interpret it as being malicious or suspicious, which is why I choose to reopen the market.
@hmys You reopened it long after the other market got you a guaranteed promotion. This is sketchy as fuck.
@BTE This was deliberate fraud. Every single person in this league can confirm
@hmys At the very least you and Levi are colluding to manipulate the standings.
@BTE you are saying "colluding to manipulate the standings" like it's a bad thing
@hmys That is not true. We don’t know when the season will actually end. It could have ended anytime today.
Types of markets subject to delisting
Markets with acceptable content which we nonetheless don’t want on the front page for one of the following reasons:
Markets only about their own activity.
e.g. “Will this market get more up-votes than down-votes?”
These are all self-referential, but it’s now leaking into other unrelated, serious markets, making them all part of the whaling game, and whose traders and authors will become quite confused and very annoyed.
Seems to me this is too high (probably being gamed): /IsaacKing/will-manifold-be-significantly-less
@hmys all your profits were cheats as I documented and can be verified by anyone looking at your profit chart
@hmys I recall looking at your league and seeing it differently but I might be wrong for sure. And tbh I think it should have closed last night, at least that’s what I would have done. May is over.
I just realized that I have the ability to resolve this market. Should it be N/A’d???
Who is @SheldonFinch joined just today (what a coincidence) for a bet on a date with Levina and kills it?
surely a coincidence that market got sniped and resolve today after being dormant for two months, well done Sheldon!
@deagol I'm not sheldon finch
@levifinkelstein idk if manifold admins have a way of verifying this, perhaps buy looking at ip/email? idk. but I promise it's not me. HMYS is also not me (although he's my friend)
Just two friends playing chess, how cute! what a shock for Levi who wins 9/10 to their friend lost this one. And it just happened to go down last night just before midnight Pacific, surely just coincidence.
Aww what a nice group of friends all playing together, I wonder how that market will resolve?? created by one of them (same author of this market) but more importantly who's gonna profit? 🤔
Ooh wow poor Levi got taken to the cleaners, almost exactly the same amount going to said author, surely it's pure trading skills! And all happened this morning naturally, after the market was a desert for a month. What a coincidence! 🤔
First of all, you’re in 6th place M$7 behind 5th place. Second, I don’t understand the claims of manipulation. Can someone explain clearly??
@BTE They own >7k Mana shares here, so when the market here was at 20%, they weren't even close. They bought it to ~80% and locked the market so that their profit is secured at M2,207 and nobody can force it down.
If they really wanted to prevent manipulation/wrongdoing, they would just N/A the market. The intention is clear and it was always intended as a method to transfer mana between friends/accounts or outright manipulate the public to pump their profits for the finish.
Pretty interesting approach. A lot of people making bad bets to win leagues are going to have a tough time in June - it'll be a competition to get demoted instead
@BTE This market is recursively related to profits of 5 and 6 positions.
Upping the percentage here increases profits for HMYS (at 6) and decreases profits for @deagol (at 5).
So upping it and locking the market (at an obviously incoherent 85%) ahead of the intended close time at false claims is a very uncool move.
@Gen Interesting. So was Levina a collaborator or something?
@BTE I fully expect Levina and HMYS to be either long term friends or literally the same person. Almost identical betting behaviour and almost always participating in markets one after the other. Lots of mana exchanges.
99% they spoke & are collaborating here, can't be sure though.
I'm not too worried about the leagues manipulation cause ultimately anyone boosted for May will struggle in June. It should even out over time and people will learn that end of month there is plenty of juice to squeeze out of people trying to win their league
@Gen I support your claim, please refer to my comment:
@Gen idk, Levina far outperformed HMYS this season in the most difficult cohort.
@BTE 1% of 100000 is more than 1% of 10000
@PseudonymousAlt just having more mana leads to more ez profit
@PseudonymousAlt It can also lead to HUGE losses, but I hear you.
I made this stock so I can track public opinion about myself :) I love feedback
Many people were complaining that the market was encouraging market manipulation and other poor behavior. Therefore I've decided to close the market. It will be resolved once the league results are in.
@hmys that statement would be far more believable had you not bought it up 50%, immediately prior to closing it.
@Fedor self-fulling market 😂
I mean there's still much that could demote him though, it's not over yet!
@hmys Do you confirm that you will not reopen the market under any circumstances?
@hmys this is uncool
Meh, a reason to buy https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/levina-stock down I guess
This leagues game has devalued this whole site, every single market, into a self-resolving gamble. The Manifold team may enjoy more revenues, but this surely goes against the intention I joined and spend a significant amount of time here.
Administrators, please look into the betting patterns and schemes here and all similar “will I promote” markets, as well as all the spurious betting up or down in markets where the user whose league rank is getting propped or held back has a position.
@Austin @JamesGrugett @ian @SG @DavidChee
I’m sure there’s 10 times more like this.
@Irigi Every single market on the site is game.
@hmys do you wanna play another chess game? I wanna rewin my mana 👿
@levifinkelstein i can help you, let's play together, i'll turn you from Levina into leWina
@42irrationalist that's sounds nice, let's do it, if @hmys agrees
Just heads up that HMYS just had a 6k profit spike
@levifinkelstein why isn’t it counting for the league?
@deagol it is, it's just not updated yet :)
@levifinkelstein That resolved more than 6h ago, while still the ranks and league profits keep changing for much more recent activity, updating as I trade as well as by others' actions, but not those profits, nor these.
@deagol yeah, I said it was fine if the mods discounted it from the league calculation, dik if that's why