Will I promote to diamond this season?
40
2.2k
750
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
YES

I am currently number 8 in bayesed basillisks platinum league. Will I be top 5 and consequently promote to Diamond by the end of this season?

Edit: Currently 10th place

Get Ṁ600 play money

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#NameTotal profit
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predicted NO

This market counted against me last season and this season. Either a bug or result of what I thought was unrelated market manipulation by the creator who reopened market after season closed only to resolve 15 minutes later. @DavidChee @ian

predicted NO

@DavidChee and @ian, same bug for me.

predicted NO

@RobertCousineau I haven't been able to see my personal league summary all month. Hasn't loaded once.

predicted NO

@BTE i lost on this market M556 but for some reason it counts as a profit for this season

predicted NO

@Lavander same case for me, about half your “profits”. This happened because of the very non-standard, or perhaps “brilliant” ( /s) manner in which manifold decided to close the season at a random time overlapping with S2, combined with how they account for leagues profits. I have a feeling their company accountant (or anyone with some common sense) was not available to consult on this decision.

You see, as you realized the market manipulation was likely to succeed, you dumped (as I did too) all those eventually worthless NO’s (equivalent of buying winning YES’s) on June 1, which not only counted for last season as “salvaging” any value out of a worthless position, but for this season it now counts again as if your previous position didn’t exist, so it’s as if you only played the winning side (manipulation) by getting a whole bunch of YES (equivalent to your NO dumping) for this season.

The problem is you (and I) “benefited” twice, due to the overlapping period between start of S2 on June 1 midnight PDT and random closing time for S1 (I think around noon-1 PM PDT can’t remember but this market’s resolution time as well as some comments here represent a decent proxy). All activity during that period, for all users, and on all markets (that weren’t delisted) counted twice for leagues profits, rankings, and promotions.

predicted NO

@deagol Well I was a lock for first place last season until this market factored so I didn’t benefit in that case, but season 2 has been good to me, though I spent the first 5 days of the month 5-7k down. I think some people got dinged twice while others got gassed twice, no?

predicted NO

@BTE correct. As I said, all activity during the seasons overlap (whether good bets or bad bets) counted twice. Unfortunately you were too stubborn to see they would succeed in manipulating this in time, and the irregular and premature closing of the market “to prevent manipulation” likely prevented you from salvaging by dumping NO. So yes, you were f*cked twice.

predicted NO

@BTE I believe a lot of people have been dinged, gassed, and bleeped not just twice but several more times. But that’s normal everyday acceptable manifold, I guess.

predicted NO

@deagol Not exactly. Rather than dump NO I bought 2000 YES right before the market closed to get out of my position.

predicted NO

Why can’t I see my profit on this market anymore?

predicted NO

@BTE the reason you’re not seeing a net benefit for this season from buying YES is that your bad NO bets were also purchased on June 1, so they’re also counted in both May and June. In @Lavander and my case, we had purchased those NOs in late May, so they don’t count for our June profits and thus we come out as June geniuses playing with the manipulators.

predicted NO

@deagol Well played y’all!!

predicted NO

@BTE “I spent the first 5 days of the month 5-7k down”

I knew levibot had transferred ~11k to the author here, and I knew levina had also gifted a bit more, but not too much because she (not a misgender, she was levina and went by she at the time) also needed to promote. But the author was at ~5k right at the edge of promotion when all this was going down, and the 11k wouldn’t get them to the 20k+ they ended at. Now I see it was you who helped fill that gap. 😂

predicted NO

@deagol Yes indeed. @levifinkelstein owes me a date!

predicted YES

Unfollowed this market because of the constant back-and-forth between people arguing past each other but I am now worried that I'll miss the sweet drama with admins intervening.

Manifold is scams all the way down. It's even run by scamdmins, it's their official title.

predicted YES

@42irrationalist I am done bickering.

predicted NO

On my end, you seem to be in first place now, and the mana earned is also different. Is that some sort of error? Will it occur that in the end, that despite being placed in 1st/2nd place, you end up not being promoted to diamond? This is arguably too early a resolution.

Anyhow, for those of you who are suspicious, Please note that in the screenshot below, HMYS's time zone is not of UK, but of a number of continental European nations, from Spain to Sweden and Poland. Levi too had said that he is in Europe.

predicted YES

@XComhghall We're not the same person, haha people think I have all these alts and they're wrong every single time. The only alt I actually use is @LEVI_BOT_1 . Personally I'm willing to go on a discord call to prove that @hmys is not me.

predicted YES

@XComhghall
> On my end, you seem to be in first place, and the mana earned is also different.

I think manifold is kind of f̶̼͎̊û̴̺͓͔̂́͊̒c̵̜͓̘̾͌̋͠k̵̲̗̪̤̟̦͖̖̰̱͉͔͈̞̂͐̈́̄̄̀̀̋͝e̸̢̨̙̖͇̜̯͆̓̄d̷̢̧̨̖͇̪̼͕̯̞͔͎̹̉͛̈́͒̎̔͗̅̄͒̾̒̊̊ , it just didn't freeze the standings correctly.

predicted NO

@levifinkelstein I only claimed:

“collusion and transfers to boost profits” what you’ve all been doing in every market HMYS profited big today (in fact the only profits they got over the whole month), and,

“alts used to transfer and boost profit” as described in the guidelines amount to the same thing.

However there was in fact at least one market where you traded with your declared alt levibot, which is just one of a couple I checked but I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s more.

predicted NO

@levifinkelstein Nah, it's fine. I do not intend to make any such accusations. Sorry for any misunderstanding, miscommunication, or otherwise offensiveness on my end.

predicted YES

Resolved yes. Finished in 2nd place

sold Ṁ41 of YES

@hmys exactly Ṁ200 in profits, my sense of number roundness is impeccable

predicted NO

@hmys Nice work. That’s a tough group. I won mine and I would have been fourth in yours.

predicted YES

@BTE when does the next season start?

predicted NO

@42irrationalist I was just about to ask the same question! 😂