Will Apple sell more than 500k Vision Pro headsets in the first year following release?

(this market, implying sales of 285K headsets, was previously at only 35%... even though the median sales expectation in https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p?r=d2hhbGVsYW5n is 400K units!)

@JacksonWagner Related markets / potential arbitrage opportunities:

150K headsets sold in 2024: https://manifold.markets/JacksonWagner/will-apple-sell-more-than-150k-visi
285K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1

50th percentile estimate, currently 320K: https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p ...markets with thresholds below this 50th percentile estimate (150K and 285K) should IMO be above 50%; markets with higher thresholds (500K+) should be lower than 50%, or else this market (currently 320K) should move a lot.

500K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h
575K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea
750K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h
850K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-ecd06df8baab
1,400K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-6ba0eda02079

Will Apple sell more than 150k Vision Pro headsets in 2024?

66% chance. Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered). At $3500 each, 150k unit sales would generate a little over half a billion dollars of revenue.

How Many Units Will Apple’s Vision Pro Headset Sell In The First Year?

460K expected. “Bank of America expects Apple to sell 1.5 million units of the Vision Pro in its first year, while Wedbush expects first-year sales of only 150,000 units” [1] “KGI Securities analyst Christine Wang said she expected shipments of 200,000 in the first year, while Credit Suisse predict…

Just my knowledge, but it is more than likely that Apple will not allow 6, 12, or 24 month financing for this product for those with Apple Card. Which will take a chunk away from those medium credit lines.

Probably also because Goldman Sachs is trying to unload Apple Card since they have already lost over $1 billion in their partnership. Guess that is what happens when you offer 0% installment interest on Apple Products...who woulda thunk 😂

sold Ṁ95 of YES

https://www.ft.com/content/b6f06bde-17b0-4886-b465-b561212c96a9

Two people close to Apple and Luxshare, the Chinese contract manufacturer that will initially assemble the device, said it was preparing to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024. Multiple industry sources said Luxshare was currently Apple’s only assembler of the device. Separately, two China-based sole suppliers of certain components for the Vision Pro said Apple was only asking them for enough for 130,000 to 150,000 units in the first year.

bought Ṁ15 of NO

@NoaNabeshima It seems like the bottleneck might not be a demand issue, but a production issue.

bought Ṁ35 of NO

@NoaNabeshima should have tried to explain competent traders buying No before I donated to Acceleration

predicts NO

@NoaNabeshima I want other traders to tell me why they're trading the way they are in comments :c

bought Ṁ15 of YES

For context 18M macbooks are sold per year and all VR headsets are ~6M per year according to 2 min of searching wo fact checking

@NoaNabeshima i just found out they're not selling M1 macs anymore :(

@firstuserhere (context: i needed to buy a new mac, and my m1 work mac is absolutely a beast, and one of the best laptops i've used. I don't know much about m2 macs)