Will Apple sell more than 500k Vision Pro headsets before January 20th, 2025?
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27k
Dec 31
27%
chance

Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered)

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bought Ṁ10 NO

@breck If it will ship 400-450k units in 2024, than they are very likely to actually hit the 500k in 12 months set by this market.

I created this market to track the Vision Pro sales on a more granular level

Does this date to the end of the calendar year, or to 1 year from the original SHIP/LAUNCH date?

@Eliza Sorry I just saw this! I’d say one year after it was purchase able, does that answer your question?

Apple Vision Pro Mixed Reality Headset to hit Apple Store in Mid January (December 29, 2023)

"According to Kuo’s statement, the Vision Pro is presently in mass production, with a target of 500,000 units set for 2024."

Sold my shares here because I realized I could make better use of the money arbitraging these other markets:
https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h (previously, both the 500K and 750K markets were at 23%, which seems crazy)

https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1

(this market, implying sales of 285K headsets, was previously at only 35%... even though the median sales expectation in https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p?r=d2hhbGVsYW5n is 400K units!)

Just my knowledge, but it is more than likely that Apple will not allow 6, 12, or 24 month financing for this product for those with Apple Card. Which will take a chunk away from those medium credit lines.

Probably also because Goldman Sachs is trying to unload Apple Card since they have already lost over $1 billion in their partnership. Guess that is what happens when you offer 0% installment interest on Apple Products...who woulda thunk 😂

https://www.ft.com/content/b6f06bde-17b0-4886-b465-b561212c96a9

Two people close to Apple and Luxshare, the Chinese contract manufacturer that will initially assemble the device, said it was preparing to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024. Multiple industry sources said Luxshare was currently Apple’s only assembler of the device. Separately, two China-based sole suppliers of certain components for the Vision Pro said Apple was only asking them for enough for 130,000 to 150,000 units in the first year.

@NoaNabeshima It seems like the bottleneck might not be a demand issue, but a production issue.

@NoaNabeshima should have tried to explain competent traders buying No before I donated to Acceleration

predicts NO

@NoaNabeshima I want other traders to tell me why they're trading the way they are in comments :c

For context 18M macbooks are sold per year and all VR headsets are ~6M per year according to 2 min of searching wo fact checking

@NoaNabeshima i just found out they're not selling M1 macs anymore :(

@firstuserhere (context: i needed to buy a new mac, and my m1 work mac is absolutely a beast, and one of the best laptops i've used. I don't know much about m2 macs)

@NoaNabeshima note: airpods took an aggressive meme campaign by apple ~2 months into their launch to be popular

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