"Bank of America expects Apple to sell 1.5 million units of the Vision Pro in its first year, while Wedbush expects first-year sales of only 150,000 units" [1]
"KGI Securities analyst Christine Wang said she expected shipments of 200,000 in the first year, while Credit Suisse predicted Apple could ship over 1 million units in the period." [2]
[2]
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Related markets / potential arbitrage opportunities:
150K headsets sold in 2024: https://manifold.markets/JacksonWagner/will-apple-sell-more-than-150k-visi
285K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1
50th percentile estimate, currently 320K: https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p ...markets with thresholds below this 50th percentile estimate (150K and 285K) should IMO be above 50%; markets with higher thresholds (500K+) should be lower than 50%, or else this market (currently 320K) should move a lot.
500K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h
575K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea
750K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h
850K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-ecd06df8baab
1,400K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-6ba0eda02079