Vision Pro will show another set of results this quarter. In Q1, the consensus of four analysts estimated 53,800 units to be sold, generating $279.7 million. For the full year, consensus revenue estimates for the Vision Pro are expected to remain flat year-over-year at $1.0 billion.
https://visiblealpha.com/blog/apple-earnings-preview-fiscal-q1-2025-iphone-expectations-continue-to-move-lower/

Higher numbers are around e.g. 1.75bn
https://www.forbes.com/sites/gurufocus/2025/02/26/apple-stocks-premium-valuation-puts-investors-at-risk/

I am under impression parts for 500k have been supplied but lots of these are unsold. The longer it is before we hear news of new orders the lower we should think the sales in 2024 were. Seems plausible that we are not getting any news because parts suppliers are not getting any orders?

Suggestions for this question to resolve YES.

https://www.macobserver.com/news/apple-vision-pro-sales-match-pre-launch-estimates/

These guys seem more skeptical? https://arinsider.co/2024/10/29/how-many-vision-pros-will-apple-sell-this-year/

Has anyone seen more reliable figures? I expect to go with a best guess (projections plus estimates) that this can resolve YES, and that we won't ever get an Apple number on 2024 sales.

@HenriThunberg I am sceptical of that 370k sales figure.

For a more sceptical view perhaps
https://www.eurogamer.net/apple-vision-pro-3500-headset-reportedly-no-longer-in-production-as-stock-piles-up
Apple reportedly believes it has now manufactured enough components to meet the Vision Pro's overall expected lifetime sales, which are lower than expected.

That seems to make more sense than your first link saying
"The company may halt production of the current version entirely by year-end, probably because of the lack of sufficient inventory to meet foreseeable demand."
If the demand was present they would order more parts.

One reason I am sceptical of 370k sales figure is
Q1 ~100k
Q2 ~ 80k

500k part supplied enough for lifetime sales. Wow! In that case, that 370k seems surprisingly high. How would that work? 190k in Q3 and remainder of life only 130k suggests we should have a new version very soon . Doesn't ring true to me.

Tailing off demand after initial surge of interest and preorders being filled as assembled at beginning? Seems more likely.

Even flat sales rate 180k /6 months * 10 months is only 300k.
Why the acceleration in sales? Perhaps production ramping up after some difficulties with production is a possible explanation but then why a drop from Q1 to Q2?
370k seems more like an assembled parts number but lots unsold.

Of course it could be the 370k is correct and the other figures and/or info suggesting tailing off demand are wrong. Could be wrong in other ways too.

Another more sceptical view
https://sherwood.news/tech/apple-vision-pros-us-sales-drop-quarter-over-quarter/
"Expects sales to drop 76% QonQ"
An explanation for this pattern could be that once production has delivered the pre-order queue then there is not much demand to fill.

Under this scenario, things like "has now manufactured enough components to meet the Vision Pro's overall expected lifetime sales" seems much more plausible.

While the 370k sales might be right, I think sub 285k is also possible and we should wait for further info.

@ChristopherRandles thanks for pushing back, and taking time to do so well!

Happy to let this one live for longer. I am a bit uncomfortable with the fact that I'm holding a somewhat large (for me) YES position (in hindsight, I should have abstained trading), but expect us to jointly be able to hold resolution to a high standard :)

@HenriThunberg Thanks for waiting.

Had another look and while I didn't find anything new, I failed to persuade Grok the 370k sales figure was likely wrong.
The explanation seems to be in sales expanding to more countries:

Countries Where Sales Expanded

The Vision Pro expanded internationally in 2024:

• June 28, 2024: Available in China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore

  .

• July 12, 2024: Available in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom

  .

By the end of Q3 2024, it was available in 10 countries/regions: US, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, UK.

Proportion of Sales by Country

Exact sales by country are not publicly disclosed, but we can estimate based on market size and tech adoption:

• United States: Likely accounts for 60-70% of total sales, given its early launch and large market. With 200,000 units in Q1 (mostly US), and Q2 at 55,000 (US-only for most), US sales might be around 255,000 of the 420,000 total, or ~61%.
  ...
  

• Even with my figures of q1 100k q2 80k then q3 could easily reach 180/65*35 = 95k this gives a total of 275k and it needs, at most, just over 10k units in q4 to reach $1Bn sales.
  
  So I think I should probably concede I was wrong and the over $1Bn is true. We might have to wait a long time if ever to get better information so think resolving it may well be sensible and reasonable.
  
  If the 370k by Q3 is roughly correct then it would seem like sales would be expected to be in the region of 1.3Bn to 1.5Bn from Vision Pro sales new. Not sure what other headsets or related accessories there might be. However units produced seem estimated at 450k to 600k and 600k at $3500 only reaches $2.1Bn. Therefore I would suggest this may be enough for the $3bn plus markets to resolve no?
  
  FWIW Grok seems to think unit sales are around Q1 2024 200k Q2 55k Q3 115k Q4 50k and doesn't seem concerned that Apple might be running out of stock soon suggesting total number produced could be 450k to 600k. If we knew it was just 450k produced then waiting to see when inventory runs out might give us useful data but if it is higher then it may be a long time and not be helpful.

@ChristopherRandles @traders I will resolve this question to YES unless anyone disagrees.

@HenriThunberg It's a bit disappointing to resolve based on an AI's analysis on incomplete data, but to be honest, I don't have a better idea or source.

@ErwinRossen thank you for sharing! I am basing this less on AI analysis and more on news items from 2024.

If it was more ambiguous, I'd probably prefer to wait or N/A. But I would guess the real number is a few 100k above the needed 285k.

Would you ask to wait, or it feels fine to resolve YES?

Related markets / potential arbitrage opportunities:

150K headsets sold in 2024: https://manifold.markets/JacksonWagner/will-apple-sell-more-than-150k-visi

285K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1

50th percentile estimate, currently 320K: https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p ...markets with thresholds below this 50th percentile estimate (150K and 285K) should IMO be above 50%; markets with higher thresholds (500K+) should be lower than 50%, or else this market (currently 320K) should move a lot.

500K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h

575K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea

750k: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h

850K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-ecd06df8baab

1400K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-6ba0eda02079

Will Apple sell more than 150k Vision Pro headsets in 2024?

66% chance. Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered). At $3500 each, 150k unit sales would generate a little over half a billion dollars of revenue.

-snip-

@cloudprism Not sure why this posted twice