I created this market to track the Vision Pro sales on a more granular level

Apple Vision Pro Mixed Reality Headset to hit Apple Store in Mid January (December 29, 2023)

"According to Kuo’s statement, the Vision Pro is presently in mass production, with a target of 500,000 units set for 2024."

Related markets / potential arbitrage opportunities:

150K headsets sold in 2024: https://manifold.markets/JacksonWagner/will-apple-sell-more-than-150k-visi
285K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1

50th percentile estimate, currently 320K: https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p ...markets with thresholds below this 50th percentile estimate (150K and 285K) should IMO be above 50%; markets with higher thresholds (500K+) should be lower than 50%, or else this market (currently 320K) should move a lot.

500K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h
575K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea
750K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h
850K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-ecd06df8baab
1,400K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-6ba0eda02079

Will Apple sell more than 150k Vision Pro headsets in 2024?

66% chance. Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered). At $3500 each, 150k unit sales would generate a little over half a billion dollars of revenue.

Betting the house on this, for the simple reason that $3500 is extremely cheap for a fully generalizable corporate training simulator.

@AndrewQuinn I'd agree that they'd like to, but supply chain issues will probably prevent it.

@Gabrielle In retrospect I would've done better to clarify whether pre-sales without delivery of product count towards this number. I'll take the beating here in a year's time 🫡

@AndrewQuinn I think preorders should count if they pay full price and it's non-refundable, do you disagree @Gabrielle ?

@ian Based on reporting, it seems like they might not offer preorders, since they’re going to only be sold with in-person appointments at the Apple Store, but I agree that full price, non-refundable preorders should count for this.

@Gabrielle Yikes that’s a lot of retail friction.

Buyers need to make an appointment?

@StuartEllison That’s what it’s sounding like, though it’s all rumors at this point.

@hiAndrewQuinn How many companies are going to pay for AVP that didn't already buy other VR headsets? I'm sure it's nonzero, but I doubt it's high either.

https://www.ft.com/content/b6f06bde-17b0-4886-b465-b561212c96a9

Two people close to Apple and Luxshare, the Chinese contract manufacturer that will initially assemble the device, said it was preparing to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024. Multiple industry sources said Luxshare was currently Apple’s only assembler of the device. Separately, two China-based sole suppliers of certain components for the Vision Pro said Apple was only asking them for enough for 130,000 to 150,000 units in the first year.

@Gabrielle I do believe that they won’t sell too many in the first year. But Tim Cook has been known to do magic with the supply chain.

Also, the other market is way too high, good arbitrage opportunity.

https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h?r=ZXN1c2F0eW8

Will Apple sell more than 500k Vision Pro headsets in the first year following release?

80% chance.

@ian What about preorders that don't ship until 2025?

@Gabrielle I don’t think that should count. They wouldn’t report those numbers anyway.

@Gabrielle Hm, seems like they should count if they pay full price. @esusatyo - they are sales of headsets, just not deliveries. How is that wrong?

@ian If they report it then I’m happy for that to be counted.

Highly scientific study.

I'd buy a market for 1 million headsets.