Note that the year for this market is 2025, not 2024 like the other ones
According to Headphones Addict Airpods generated $1.76B in the first full year of 2017, and are widely considered a success by now.
At $3500 that's around 1.4M units.
If Apple launch more headsets with VisionOS they also count toward the revenue.
Will resolve whenever numbers are out, which will probably be before the end of June.
1,000I put some discussion at
https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1
There was a 370k sales figure to q3 2024 reported. This seems high to me but with extra sales as they expanded to other countries in that q3, I concede over 275k sales were likely. It also seems like they ordered parts for ~500k or so and have not reordered parts believing they have made more units than lifetime sales before the next version if there is a next version.
500k units at selling price of $3500 is only $1.75bn and this has to be shared between 2024 and 2025 and any remaining unsold units and 2025 won't be the majority of this. Indeed other discussions on this seem to be more about really low tailing off sales in 2025 in order to make the numbers work and for them not to have run out of stock. While maybe they had parts for 550k or even 600k units and there can be other revenue from other headsets, I struggle to see how it can get to $5bn sales in 2025.