Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered).
At $3500 each, 150k unit sales would generate a little over half a billion dollars of revenue.
Related questions
@HenriThunberg good point, and thanks for the reminder -- ideally I'd like to go with the same resolution criteria that the other Vision Pro markets plan to use (ie the ones by yourself, Ian Phillips, and others). If we don't get official word from Apple, should we just go with whatever Min-Chi Kuo says?? Should we wait for some credible balance of reporting, or for the rumored reports to exceed the threshold by some margin? Will we someday be able to get accurate (or at least closer) numbers based on investors analyzing some Apple quarterly financial report?
@Undox at $3,500 per unit this market is asking for 525,000,000 in sales for a product that dosnt have a launch date yet.
Related markets / potential arbitrage opportunities:
150K headsets sold in 2024: https://manifold.markets/JacksonWagner/will-apple-sell-more-than-150k-visi
285K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1
50th percentile estimate, currently 320K: https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p ...markets with thresholds below this 50th percentile estimate (150K and 285K) should IMO be above 50%; markets with higher thresholds (500K+) should be lower than 50%, or else this market (currently 320K) should move a lot.
500K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h
575K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea
750k: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h
850K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-ecd06df8baab
1400K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-6ba0eda02079