Will Apple sell more than 150k Vision Pro headsets in 2024?
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65
Ṁ50k
Jan 1
95%
chance

Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered).

At $3500 each, 150k unit sales would generate a little over half a billion dollars of revenue.

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predicts YES

Seems like there are enough news reports (albeit based on rumors) to resolve this to YES? Apple might not release official figures anyway, so depending on the level of evidence needed this could in theory otherwise be impossible to resolve.

@JacksonWagner have you decided what the resolution criteria are here? :)

@HenriThunberg good point, and thanks for the reminder -- ideally I'd like to go with the same resolution criteria that the other Vision Pro markets plan to use (ie the ones by yourself, Ian Phillips, and others). If we don't get official word from Apple, should we just go with whatever Min-Chi Kuo says?? Should we wait for some credible balance of reporting, or for the rumored reports to exceed the threshold by some margin? Will we someday be able to get accurate (or at least closer) numbers based on investors analyzing some Apple quarterly financial report?

@JacksonWagner I think this might have to resolve. Several quarterly reports have come out and there are still not any official figures.

News items are only debating whether 3-4-or-500k units will be sold in 2024, while they seem to agree that it's more than 200k.

I will wait at least until the end of this quarter, and maybe through 2024, just since it doesn't seem right to resolve a 2024 market only halfway through the year on uncertain info. But yeah, if I had to go on the balance of reporting available now (which is mostly about sales expectations for the year, not numbers concretely sold so far??), I would likely resolve YES.

Lofty goal ->

Airpods made 12.1bn revenue in 2022 for comparison

predicts NO

@Undox at $3,500 per unit this market is asking for 525,000,000 in sales for a product that dosnt have a launch date yet.