Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the US and Iran sign or formally announce a binding nuclear agreement (or equivalent framework deal endorsed by both governments) on or before September 30, 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.

Source signal: AP News (March 26, 2026): Trump claims Iran is eager to deal while Tehran dismisses his ceasefire plan. Both sides hardening positions; Iran grips Strait of Hormuz. AP-NORC poll: most Americans say US military action against Iran gone too far.

Why this matters: A US-Iran nuclear deal would reshape 2026 geopolitics—oil prices, Middle East stability, US foreign policy. Under-covered in prediction markets despite high verifiability.