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MANIFOLD
Will the US and Iran jointly announce a nuclear framework agreement by June 30, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ50
Jun 30
48%
chance

As of April 16, 2026, the US and Iran are in active negotiations over a nuclear framework. The 21-hour Islamabad talks (April 11-12) failed. Sticking points: US demands a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment; Iran has offered 3-5 years. Trump has called Iran's offer unacceptable. RESOLVES YES if both the US and Iran publicly confirm, on or before 23:59 UTC June 30, 2026, that they have agreed to a framework agreement covering Iran's nuclear program (including at minimum uranium enrichment limits). The framework can be preliminary or interim — it does not need to be a final treaty — but it must be a bilateral announcement, not a US-only declaration or an Iran-only proposal. RESOLVES NO otherwise. A unilateral statement, a leaked draft, or a mediator's announcement does not count.

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