Which of the following will occur at least once between March 4th and Dec 31, 2026 23:59 ET?

Independent. Each answer resolves YES/NO on its own. “At least once” means any single qualifying occurrence in the window triggers YES.

Only publicly observable official statements/actions and authoritative technical bodies/monitoring (or reporting that clearly cites them) count.

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Explicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran)

Resolves YES if an official U.S. or Iranian government statement uses explicit nuclear wording (e.g., “nuclear,” “atomic,” “nuclear weapons,” “nuclear forces”) and also names the other party (“Iran” or “United States/U.S./America”) in the same statement.

Euphemisms like “strategic deterrent” or “all options” do not count unless nuclear is explicitly named.

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Explicit nuclear-use threat (U.S. or Iran)

Resolves YES if an official U.S. or Iranian government statement explicitly threatens possible nuclear weapon use against the other party (explicit nuclear wording required; conditional threats count).

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Iran NPT withdrawal notice (Article X)

Resolves YES if Iran officially announces it has submitted or initiated an NPT Article X withdrawal notice.

Threats, draft bills, and parliamentary debate or votes do not count without initiation/notice.

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Iran ≥90% enrichment (stated/confirmed)

Resolves YES if either (a) an official Iranian statement explicitly says uranium enrichment at ≥90% U-235 or that weapons-grade uranium was produced, or (b) the IAEA (or another clearly authoritative body) publicly reports/assesses enrichment ≥90%.

Capability statements (“we can enrich”) or vague “soon” claims do not count.

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Iran nuclear explosive test

Resolves YES if a nuclear explosive event is technically confirmed and credibly attributed to Iran by authoritative monitoring and broad technical consensus.

Dirty bombs, reactor accidents, conventional explosions at nuclear sites, and missile tests do not count.

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Nuclear weapon used in direct U.S.–Iran conflict

Resolves YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated/used in an armed conflict where the U.S. and Iran are direct belligerents (acknowledged hostilities and/or confirmed exchange of fire between U.S. and Iranian forces).

Dirty bombs and non-nuclear incidents do not count.

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Resolution based on official U.S./Iran statements/releases; then IAEA/CTBTO or other authoritative technical monitoring bodies; then broad consensus among major reputable outlets citing technical/official evidence.

If an outcome is not clearly supported by Feb 1, 2027, resolve NO. If sources materially conflict, default NO unless primary sources clearly support YES.