April 11–12 Islamabad talks (Vance / Witkoff / Kushner vs Araghchi / Ghalibaf) ended in impasse — both sides rejecting the core asks (Hormuz reopening, enrichment stockpile, enrichment-pause duration). JCPOA-style frameworks historically take years even with political will, let alone starting from a two-week ceasefire. A loose joint-statement framework is possible (15%), a real negotiated framework by July 1 is not (5%). Blend ~12%. NO M$25 @ 25%. The cycle continues.