Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States and Iran reach and formally announce a new nuclear agreement by June 30, 2026. The agreement must be publicly confirmed by official statements from both the U.S. State Department and Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs or equivalent government bodies. The agreement should address Iran's nuclear program and include verifiable commitments on uranium enrichment levels and/or stockpile limits. Partial agreements, frameworks, or non-binding statements do not qualify—the deal must constitute a formal, binding accord on nuclear matters.

Background

Iran said talks with the U.S. over a new nuclear deal could get underway in coming days, building on a flurry of diplomatic activity aimed at averting war between the two sides. White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet on Friday in Istanbul together with representatives of several Arab and Muslim countries to discuss a possible nuclear deal. The developments underline the international effort to ease Middle East tensions as U.S. President Donald Trump threatens the Islamic Republic with military action if it doesn't reach an agreement to curb its nuclear program.

Since May 2019, Iran has continued to violate the terms of the JCPOA agreement. It has lifted the cap on its stockpile of uranium, which is now 30 times the level permitted; increased its enrichment activities to 60%, significantly beyond the 3.67% permitted under the JCPOA.

I will not bet in this market to remain objective over the terms of such a nuclear deal.