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MANIFOLD
Will Iran agree to suspend uranium enrichment for at least 12 months by July 31, 2026?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ78
Jul 31
37%
chance

As of April 29, 2026, US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain deadlocked. The US is demanding a 20-year uranium enrichment suspension; Iran has offered 3-5 years and (in its Apr 28 proposal) refused any near-term restrictions on the program. The ceasefire has been extended open-ended, but no deal yet. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC July 31, 2026, the US and Iran jointly announce — both sides confirming — an agreement under which Iran suspends uranium enrichment for at least 12 consecutive months. The agreement can be a framework, interim deal, or full treaty; what matters is that Iran publicly commits to ≥12-month enrichment suspension and the US publicly accepts. RESOLVES NO if no such bilateral agreement is reached by the deadline. A unilateral Iranian halt that is not formally agreed with the US does NOT count.

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