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MANIFOLD
Will Iran physically hand over its 'nuclear dust' / enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ160
Jul 31
4%
chance

On April 16, 2026, Trump publicly stated that Iran agreed to hand over its 'nuclear dust' (enriched uranium stockpile) as part of negotiations. As of May 2, no actual handover has occurred and negotiations remain deadlocked over enrichment limits. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC July 31, 2026, Iran physically transfers its enriched uranium stockpile (any portion ≥80% of pre-strike inventory per IAEA estimates) to a third party — the US, the IAEA, or a designated international depository. Confirmation by IAEA, US State Department, or Iranian Foreign Ministry required. RESOLVES NO if no such physical transfer occurs by the deadline. Verbal agreements, framework deals, or partial token transfers (

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