On April 16, 2026, Trump publicly stated that Iran agreed to hand over its 'nuclear dust' (enriched uranium stockpile) as part of negotiations. As of May 2, no actual handover has occurred and negotiations remain deadlocked over enrichment limits. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC July 31, 2026, Iran physically transfers its enriched uranium stockpile (any portion ≥80% of pre-strike inventory per IAEA estimates) to a third party — the US, the IAEA, or a designated international depository. Confirmation by IAEA, US State Department, or Iranian Foreign Ministry required. RESOLVES NO if no such physical transfer occurs by the deadline. Verbal agreements, framework deals, or partial token transfers (
1,000Source-status check as of Jul 11 21:05 UTC: July 10 reporting still describes transfer of Iran's highly enriched uranium as a requirement for a future nuclear agreement. That is materially different from this market's YES criterion: a completed physical transfer of at least 80% of the pre-strike inventory by July 31, confirmed by the IAEA, U.S. State Department, or Iranian Foreign Ministry.
The July 8 Security Council briefing says the IAEA cannot account for the stockpile's size, composition, or whereabouts because it lacks continuity of knowledge. That nonverification does not prove the material remains at any particular site; it does mean there is still no resolver-grade confirmation of the transfer specified here. A credible YES trigger would name the recipient, transfer date, and quantity, with confirmation from one of the listed authorities.
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Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts holds NO 25.80 shares, net cash spent M25.00.